Former US Energy Department chief scientist Steven Koonin says sea levels rise at changing rates and sees ‘no signs’ of a climate apocalypse.
Here we continue our interview with Dr. Steven Koonin, chief scientist in the US Department of Energy during the Barack Obama administration and author of the just-published book, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, And Why It Matters.
JT: The media and NGOs have propagated the notion that we are facing a climate disaster of apocalyptic dimension, time is running out and we need to declare a global state of emergency. What would you say to somebody who has this idea that we’re facing an apocalypse?
SK: What I would say is, the models show no signs of the apocalypse. A lot of the bad things that people talk about just have not been happening, and the quantitative projections that are in the reports explicitly say this is not a big deal.
In fact, one of the key findings is climate is only one, and a relatively minor, factor in determining economic well-being. It’s right there in the report. So I don’t understand why people think this is going to be a disaster.
JT: Well, one effect, which is very much upfront in the media and in people’s minds, is sea-level rise. People are used to seeing pictures on television of masses of ice breaking off from glaciers and falling into the ocean. This is really horrifying. What do you say about that?
SK: Well there is both a quantitative and a qualitative issue. Let me start with a quantitative issue first. As I talk about in the book, global sea-level rise is not easy to measure.
Data on local sea rise is a lot better. But if you look at the rate of global sea-level rise, as well as we have been able to measure over the last century, it’s got ups and downs.
JT: For many ordinary people, just to hear that the sea levels are rising at all is enough to terrify them. Popular media coverage of global warming often leaves the impression that sea-level rise per se is something new and caused by humans.
And yet it is well known that sea levels have been rising more or less continuously for the last 20,000 years, since the last ice age. Sea rise is nothing new, nor is the large-scale melting of continental and polar ice.
Everyone ought to have learned that in school. In your book, you note that the rate of sea-level rise varies quite a bit. What has been happening in the recent period? Are there signs that the rise is accelerating?
SK: If you go back to 1940 or so, the global sea level was going up two and a half millimeters a year. And then if you go to 1960 it was going up only one millimeter per year.
The rate went down tremendously. And then it went back up again; currently, it’s at about three millimeters a year, just a bit higher than it was in 1940.
We’ve got a good deal of natural variability in the records that we have, and we are only just beginning to understand why it did that. Greenland ice 70-80 years ago was melting at about the same rate as – or even faster than – it is now.
So, we have got to untangle the natural variability before we get really excited about what we’ve seen over the last 30 years.
If you look at the example in the book of sea level as recorded by the tide gauge at the Battery – the tip of Manhattan – it has got very clear oscillations in the rate of rise.
It’s really hard to judge what the cause is because although human influences have been growing during that trend, you see this very strong oscillatory behavior, which says that natural variability is playing an important role here.
Now, that said, it’s clear that the warming of the planet will lead to less ice and therefore a higher sea level.
But according to the IPCC projections of what the rate of rise will be – it’s different in different places – you know, we might see another 30 centimeters by the end of the century or equivalently the rate would go from the current average of three millimeters to something like four millimeters per year. But we don’t see that yet.
But you have to understand that this is really uncertain because a lot of it depends on ice sheet dynamics. But even at a rate of five millimeters a year – that is, five centimeters a decade or 50 centimeters in a century – we will certainly be able to adapt to that.
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The idea that satellites are useful in the measurement of sea level change is a complete farce. They might be able to detect changes that occur over a century, if the change is significant enough, but this will not be the case. The credit given to satellite technology is way over-blown, just as uninformed people assume that satellite imagery can be used to track people through facial recognition. It just cannot be done, and probably never will be – unless the atmosphere somehow disappears, then we have other, bigger problems to worry about.
The Hydrographic Surveyor of NSW, Daniel Fitzhenry, said a while ago that data recorded by the Bureau of Meteorology at Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour is “more accurate than satellite” on sea levels. He said the station has been and remains one of the most reliable tide and sea gauging stations in the world, due to its position next to the largest body of water on Earth, the Pacific Ocean. The BOM started mean sea level records in 1914, and the data shows them rise and fall within a range of 15 centimetres. Fitzhenry said levels are affected daily by the moon’s rotation around the earth, and the movements of the planets around the sun in elliptical orbits.
Prior to that, Paul Kench of the University of Auckland said, “My data from the Maldives and observations in Tuvalu in the Pacific show that islands do have the capacity to grow vertically. This occurs in storm events when waves break and flow over the top of islands. Under such circumstances, sediment is transported from the reef and beach to the island surface. We have documented increases in island elevation of up to 0.3m in parts of the Maldives. This vertical building process is also evident in Tuvalu and other low-lying Pacific islands. An interesting outcome of the recent work is the fact that islands are in continual adjustment to changing boundary conditions. They have the ability to migrate on their reef platforms.”
Meanwhile, the Dutch have long shown how to reclaim land: one sixth of the Netherlands is reclaimed land, a quarter of its area is located below sea level, one fifth of its population lives in areas below sea level and only half of its area is more than one meter above sea level. The nation’s lowest point is actually seven metres below sea level.
But let’s all panic instead.
Thanks to John Kerry’s valiant efforts, the seas are no longer a problem … https://newtube.app/user/RAOB/R8l9API