Report: Climate Models Predicting Global Doom Hopelessly Flawed

The sky warriors hold the climate models that have been predicting global doom to be sacrosanct. But as we have reported many times in the past, they’re flawed.

A new research paper confirms our warnings.

It would be helpful if the brand name media would make note of it. We won’t be holding our own hot air, though. [emphasis, links added]

A January report from Berkeley Earth – self-described as a “non-profit research organization” that “has been preparing independent analyses of global mean temperature changes since 2013″ – starts out as anyone would expect: with a frightful declaration “that 2022 was nominally the fifth warmest year on Earth since 1850.” Which of course means nothing.

It goes on to say, “The last eight years have included all eight of the warmest years observed in the instrumental record,” another string of words that sound ominous but aren’t.

What is important, however, is buried near the bottom of the report.

Since 1980, Earth’s temperature trend “has changed little.” The researchers reckon that global temperatures have increased by 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade over that period.

The data was pulled from 50,498 weather stations combined with sea-surface temperature data.

With this in mind, let’s take a look at the predictions that have been made by the climate models.

Their forecasts indicate that ​​temperatures should be increasing at the rate of about 0.28–0.29 degrees Celsius per decade. That’s about 50% higher than the increases Berkeley Earth found.

Other measurements have produced similar results, says Reason science correspondent Ronald Bailey [bold added].

“​The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finds that the global average temperature has been increasing at the rate of 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade since 1981. NASA’s GISTEMP data set reports an increase of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade. The U.K.’s Hadley Centre finds the increase is about 0.20 degrees Celsius per decade.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reports the global average temperature trend generated by its fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5). Reanalysis is a blend of observations with past short-range weather forecasts rerun with modern weather forecasting models.

From 1979 on, the ERA5 calculates that the global average temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s JRA-55 reanalysis finds the per-decade rate of increase is 0.18 degrees Celsius.

Meanwhile, satellite measurements, which we’ve argued are the standard and the only gauges that can be trusted, tell us global temperatures have averaged an increase of only 0.13 degrees Celsius per decade since Dec. 1, 1978.

Taking variables such as “​​the orbital decay of satellites, the deterioration of instruments, and changes related to replacing satellites over time” into account, Bailey says, produces a rise of 0.18 degrees per decade.

So we have further confirmation that the climate models are running hot. It’s an honest assessment that has been made by the United Nations, Nature Geoscience researchers, scientists at Geophysical Research Letters, other assorted experts, and modelers themselves.

Will the media now back off their doomsday reports, laden with nonsense from the likes of John Kerry, Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, Al Gore, Bill Nye, King Charles III, U.N. functionaries and an entire cast of narcissists, attention seekers, virtue signalers, screeching hysterics, and blind zealots?

Unlikely.

The press has been carrying the narrative for decades and is fully invested in perpetuating the fear as long as possible.

It doesn’t hurt that the “solutions” for global warming also happen to be Democrats’ favored policies for wealth redistribution and the capture of our free market economy.

The mainstream media have become a subunit of the Democratic Party responsible for disseminating its never-ending torrent of propaganda.

Read more at Issues & Insights