National Grid executives have warned of blackouts before the end of the decade unless the South East pays more for power than other regions. [emphasis, links added]
In private conversations with the energy industry, executives from the Grid’s Electricity System Operator (ESO) claimed the network was becoming so congested that “there will be blackouts in the South East by 2028”, one industry source claimed.
They blamed the looming threat on the switch to less predictable wind and solar power, coupled with outdated market rules that critics say are exacerbating bottlenecks.
The ESO is campaigning to introduce so-called zonal pricing where power suppliers can be paid more in the South East than elsewhere if demand is higher.
A second energy industry source confirmed that the ESO is “very worried about keeping the lights on” in the region, adding that the possibility of blackouts was “credible” in the coming years if the problem was not addressed.
The ESO on Tuesday said that its official position did not predict blackouts in 2028, but declined to comment on the private remarks.
A spokesman said:
“As a prudent system operator, we regularly assess the future challenges to decarbonizing Great Britain’s electricity system whilst maintaining security of supply and managing cost.
“The ESO’s analysis does not show there will be blackouts because of current market arrangements.
“It indicates that we will need to continue to use our operational toolkit to balance the electricity system on a national basis.
“However, we expect that reforms to the wholesale electricity market, the accelerated delivery of electricity networks, and delivery of new generation and storage, will create a more efficient electricity system for the future.”
Electricity supply from renewables such as wind and solar is set to rocket higher this decade as the Government pushes to make the power grid net zero by 2030.
But with many of Britain’s offshore wind farms being built far from the main areas of demand such as London, this will also require massive investment in grid infrastructure to ensure power can be efficiently moved around the country.
Experts and the ESO have argued this is being hindered by existing grid arrangements, where the whole of Britain operates as one electricity market.
The current system largely ignores the realities of how much power can be moved from North to South, owing to physical limits on the capacity of transmission cables.
It also forces the ESO to balance the system to keep the lights on, for example, by paying wind farms to stop generating in Scotland while also paying gas-fired plants in the South to switch on.
It must often make these decisions within a one-hour window and at large expense to consumers.
A recent study by FTI Consulting estimated that these “constraint” payments will reach £2bn in 2030 and around £5bn in 2035.
Jason Mann, an energy expert at FTI Consulting who carried out a study for the Government on the electricity market last year, warned that balancing the South East would become increasingly difficult in the coming years as the grid grows more constrained.
He said: “As we go to a more intermittent renewables-based system, the challenges of balancing the grid are only going to become greater, particularly under the current national pricing regime.”
The issue has prompted the Government to weigh major changes to the electricity market, potentially by splitting it into regional zones that would each have their own electricity price.
This would encourage power companies to build plants closer to where electricity is needed.
Read rest at The Telegraph
Look at the Paris Olympic Village no one wants to star there this is the world Liberal of Eco-Stupidity
Back on the computer keyboard to put some flesh on the bones of that comment.
Sailors and also millers on land would have known about wind droughts.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/04/the-endless-wind-drought-crippling-renewables/
Serious investigations at the highest level are required in all jurisdictions where the official met bureau failed to issue wind drought warnings to alert the responsible authorities to the inevitable failure of allowing large-scale wind power to destabilize and corrupt the national grid.
Similar inquiries are required to find why the responsible authorities did not perform due diligence on the wind supply, in the way that i presume rainfall records and other sources of water are scanned in advance of major irrigation projects. That would mean talking to the meteorologists who would have the best available records of wind movements.
The ultimate folly is to subsidise and mandate intermittent energy from wind and solar facilities so that the conventional, reliable providers become uneconomic and are driven out of the system. All this to reduce CO2 emissions which in Britain and Australia are at the level of rounding errors compared with the discharge from China, India and other developing nations.
The situation is as simple as ABC.
A. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.
B. The continuity of RE is broken on nights with little or no wind.
C. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.
So the transition to wind and solar power can’t proceed with current storage technology.
IN ADDITION, ALL THE PLACES WERE NET ZEREO POLICIES ARE IN PLACE ARE APPROACHING A TIPPING POINT when the capacity of conventional providers runs down to the point where there is not enough to meet the demand on windless nights. Then the contribution of the intermittent providers is effectively zero regardless of the number of windmills and the acres of solar panels.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
Britain, Germany and South Australia they have passed that point and rely on imports and deindustrialization to keep the lights on.
https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2024/06/things-that-go-slump-in-the-night/
Wind droughts and the attendant risks have been well-known in some circles for years but the news about the existential threat of wind droughts it is not spreading fast enough.
It’s all over.
For years, since independent observers in Australia clearly documented prolonged continen-wide wind droughts.
Not noticed by the official meteorologists but surely known to mariners for centuries!.
Join the dots.