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Pending Coffee Collapse Called Off As Harvests Keep Setting Records

by H. Sterling Burnett
July 03, 2021, 12:45 PM
in News and Opinion
Reading Time: 3 mins read
A A
3

picking coffee beansAn article in Fort Wayne Journal Gazette (credited to the Washington Post as the original source) highlighted by Google News today in a search for the term “climate change” claims global warming is threatening a coffee crisis. This is false.

Across its range, coffee production and yields per acre have been setting records with regularity during the recent period of modest warming.

The author of the article, titled “Climate change puts coffee at risk,” says the world’s coffee growers fear coffee production will suffer due to climate change unless new varieties of coffee beans are developed.

“Climate change could spell disaster for coffee, a crop that requires specific temperatures to flourish and that is highly sensitive to a range of pests. So scientists are racing to develop more tenacious strains of one of the world’s most beloved beverages.

…

‘Coffee is not ready to adapt to climate change without help,’ said Doug Welsh, the vice president and roastmaster of Peet’s Coffee, which has invested in WCR’s research.”

Computer model projections of future temperatures are being used to gin up fear that coffee crops are threatened by modestly warmer temperatures.

Yet, computer models are notorious for badly overstating actual temperatures [See Figure 1], and real-world data show the Earth’s modest warming has accompanied record coffee production and yields.

Figure 1. Comparisons of temperature observations from weather balloons and satellite measurements with an average of dozens of climate model run. Graph by Dr. John Christy of University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Coffee producers as a whole are not struggling. The U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization reports coffee production and yields nearly doubled between 1993 and 2019.

Global coffee production increased from approximately 5.6 million tons in 1993 to more than 10.3 million tons in 2019. Indeed, FAO data show globally coffee set new records for both production and yield 12 times since 1993.

The most recent records for production and yield were set in 2018. [See the figure below]

Figure 2. Production/Yield quantities of Coffee, green in World + (Total) 1993 – 2019. Source: The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

What’s true for the world as a whole is also true of the world’s top coffee-producing countries. Brazil, Vietnam, Columbia, Indonesia, and Ethiopia (listed in order of production) have each experienced substantial growth in coffee production during the recent period of modest warming.

According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, from 1993 to 2019:

  • Coffee production in Brazil grew by more than 135 percent;
  • Coffee production in Vietnam increased by more than 1,137 percent;
  • Coffee production in Columbia increased by more than 8 percent;
  • Coffee production in Indonesia grew by more than 73 percent; and
  • Coffee production in Ethiopia expanded by more than 168 percent.

The International Coffee Organization reports that coffee producers face problems not from any difficulty growing crops, but because crop conditions and crop production are so strong that supply is outpacing demand.

Rapid growth in coffee crop yields is driving down coffee prices. In 2018/2019 coffee production grew by 3.7 percent overall, with Arabica bean production increasing by 1.8 percent and Robusta beans growing 6.7 percent. This marked the second consecutive year of declining prices amidst growing surpluses.

In the few areas within countries where farmers have ceased growing coffee and production has declined, the evidence indicates the reason is not poor climate conditions but rather increased international competition and low prices.

Sorry, to disabuse people of your climate alarm fairy tale, Fort Wayne Journal Gazette and Washington Post, but there is no climate/coffee crisis. Coffee production keeps growing as the Earth modestly warms.

Read more at Climate Realism

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Comments 3

  1. Shoki Kaneda says:
    4 years ago

    Facts are inconvenient to liars. That’s why they scream so loudly when you cite them.

  2. Gumnut says:
    4 years ago

    There has been a concerted effort to find evidence that coffee is in danger from anthropogenic climate change. One study received a great deal of airtime, but it had an obvious drawback even to the catastrophists – it wasn’t really about coffee-producing plants, only coffee family relatives that are not used commercially at all because they don’t produce actual coffee.

    Therefore, modelling turned some attention to the three strains of coffee-producing plants. Naturally, if one uses modelling to look for a climate change problem, one can usually find something, no matter how spurious.

    Therefore, the great coffee catastrophe is alive and well, when it really should have been dead in the water.

    The only catastrophe I can see for coffee is one where I take a chocolate out of an assortment box at Christmas and end up with the coffee centre. Australia may now have a World-class cafe culture, but I can’t stand the stuff.

  3. Spurwing Plover says:
    4 years ago

    Another big time M.S. Media lie is exposed once again the M.S. Media proves why it can not be trusted

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