I’ve received many more requests about the new disappearing-clouds study than the “gold standard proof of anthropogenic warming” study I addressed here, both of which appeared in Nature journals over the last several days.
The widespread interest is partly because of the way the study is dramatized in the media. For example, check out this headline, “A World Without Clouds“, and the study’s forecast of 12 deg. C of global warming.
The disappearing clouds study is based upon the modeling of marine stratocumulus clouds, whose existence substantially cools the Earth.
These extensive but shallow cloud decks cover the subtropical ocean regions over the eastern ocean basins where upwelling cold water creates a strong boundary layer inversion.
In other words, the cold water causes a thin marine boundary layer of chilled air up to a kilometer deep, then is capped by warmer air aloft.
The resulting inversion layer (the boundary between cool air below and warm air aloft) inhibits convective mixing, and so water evaporated from the ocean accumulates in the boundary layer and clouds then develop at the base of the inversion.
There are complex infrared radiative processes which also help maintain the cloud layer.
The new modeling study describes how these cloud layers could dissipate if atmospheric CO2 concentrations get too high, thus causing a positive feedback loop on warming and greatly increasing future global temperatures, even beyond what the IPCC has predicted from global climate models.
The marine stratocumulus cloud response to warming is not a new issue, as modelers have been debating for decades whether these clouds would increase or decrease with warming, thus either reducing or amplifying the small amount of direct radiative warming from increasing CO2.
The new study uses a very high-resolution model that “grows” the marine stratocumulus clouds. The IPCC’s climate models, in contrast, have much lower resolution and must parameterize the existence of the clouds based upon larger-scale model variables.
These high-resolution models have been around for many years, but this study tries to specifically address how increasing CO2 in the whole atmosphere changes this thin, but important, cloud layer.
The high-resolution simulations are stunning in their realism, covering a domain of 4.8 x 4.8 km:
The main conclusion of the study is that when model CO2 concentrations reach 1,200 ppm or so (which would take as little as another 100 years or so assuming worst-case energy use and population growth projections like RCP8.5), a substantial dissipation of these clouds occurs causing substantial additional global warming, with up to 12 deg. C of total global warming.
Shortcomings in the Study: The Large-Scale Ocean and Atmospheric Environment
All studies like this require assumptions. In my view, the problem is not with the high-resolution model of the clouds itself. Instead, it’s the assumed state of the large-scale environment in which the clouds are assumed to be embedded.
Most importantly, it should be remembered that these clouds exist where cold water is upwelling from the deep ocean, where it has resided for centuries to millennia after initially being chilled to near-freezing in polar regions, and flowing in from higher latitudes.
This cold water is continually feeding the stratocumulus zones, helping to maintain the strong temperature inversion at the top of the chilled marine boundary layer.
Instead, their model has a one-meter-thick slab ocean that rapidly responds to only what’s going on with atmospheric greenhouse gases within the tiny (5 km) model domain.
Such a shallow ocean layer would be ok (as they claim) IF the ocean portion of the model was a closed system… the shallow ocean only increases how rapidly the model responds… not its final equilibrium state.
But given the continuous influx of cold water into these stratocumulus regions from below and from high latitudes in nature, it is far from a closed system.
Second, the atmospheric environment in which the high-res cloud model is embedded is assumed to have similar characteristics to what climate models produce. This includes substantial increases in free-tropospheric water vapor, keeping constant relative humidity throughout the troposphere.
SEE ALSO: A Profession Without Intelligence
In climate models, the enhanced infrared effects of this absolute increase in water vapor lead to a tropical “hot spot”, which observations, so far, fail to show. This is a second reason the study’s results are exaggerated.
Part of the disappearing cloud effect in their model is from increased downwelling radiation from the free troposphere as CO2 increases and positive water vapor feedback in the global climate models increases downwelling IR even more.
This reduces the rate of infrared cooling by the cloud tops, which is one process that normally maintains them. The model clouds then disappear, causing more sunlight to flood in and warm the isolated shallow slab ocean.
But if the free troposphere above the cloud does not produce nearly as large an effect from increasing water vapor, the clouds will not show such a dramatic effect.
The bottom line is that marine stratocumulus clouds exist because of the strong temperature inversion maintained by cold water from upwelling and transport from high latitudes.
That chilled boundary layer air bumps up against warm free-tropospheric air (warmed, in turn, by subsidence forced by moist air ascent in precipitation systems possibly thousands of miles away).
That inversion will likely be well-maintained in a warming world, thus maintaining the cloud deck, and not causing catastrophic global warming.
Read more at Dr. Roy’s Blog
Amazing articles of historic weather events .
Watching Democrat political hopefuls trip over themselves to
stop the climate from changing . Well err… in the direction they are told anyways .
Who is dumber the Democrat politicians or the people they are trying to impress ?
The answer may be found in observing American Indian Impostor Warren , Bug eye Booker or AOC of the planet is doomed in 12 years, but my personal favorite is M . Waters who incites attacks on Republicans at gas stations and supermarkets . No wonder Washington doesn’t work .
The Dems have a serious IQ problem . No wonder Trump won .
Recent Past Climate (weather) in the News….
https://www.newspapers.com/clip/5637483/global_cooling_11/
New York, March I886. — Long Island sound is frozen over. The United States cutter. Grant, and a schooner are frozen in and iced up. A strong gale is blowing in this region and the temperature is falling. A general ice blockade is anticipated. Several
Clipped from
The Saint Paul Globe, 02 Mar 1886, Tue, Page 4
LONG ISLAND SOUND FROZEN. New Haven, Conn., Feb. 4 . Masters: of incoming vessels today reported; that Long Island sound is practically covered with Ice from shore to shore. Sailing vessels are ice bound in harbors all along the northern shore, white steam craft have great difficulty in making their way, through the ice.
Clipped from
Calgary Herald, 04 Feb 1905, Sat, Page 4
Q. In what year was Long Island Sound frozen? M. S. A. The United States Weather Bureau says that Long Island Sound was frozen over solidly in 1888.
Clipped from
Hartford Courant, 28 Mar 1941, Fri, Page 15
New York, Jan. 22. Long Island Sound is a compact ice field from shore to shore and from Hell Gate to New Haven, Conn. Only the largest steamers went through r during the night, and unless there is a thaw navigation is likely to be closed tonight. Hundreds of sailing vessels-and big ocean-going tugs are frozen in the fields with their tows.
Clipped from
The Emporia Gazette, 22 Jan 1904, Fri, Main Edition, Page 8
By C. F. TALMAX Authority on Meteorology in J. C. Smock’s “Climate of New Jersey,” published by the state in question in 188S, there is a chronological history of the weather from the year 1607 onward; the greatest amount of attention being given to conditions prevailing in winter along the Delaware River. In view of the remarkable mildness of the past winter in the same part of the country, it is interesting to find in this Record notes of many very mild winters in the past; in some cases immediately preceding or following winters of unusual severity. The winter of 1607-08- is noted as “extremely cold, but in the year 1631 Capt. DeVries arrived in the Delaware about the first of February; the season was so mild that his men could work in the open air’ In their shirt sleeves.” In February1714. Flowers were seen in the woods. , . The winter of 1740-41 was exceptionally cold; “Long Island Sound frozen over three leagues across. Delaware not navigable from Dec. 19 until Mar. 13.” The next .winter was mild; “Delaware open during December and January, and no mention of ice in February and March.” The winter of 1754-55 was unusually mild. “Troops sailed from New York to Albany in January and February.” In 1755-56, “another mild, winter; no mention of ice in the Delaware, and entries and clearances every month.” These contrasts prevail through the record. A few years after Smock’s weather chronology was published another writer selected from his list such winters as are sufficiently described to indicate their severity or mildness and found that the severe and mild winters were exactly equal in number. Copyright, 1932 –
Clipped from
The Ithaca Journal, 10 Mar 1932, Thu, Page 6
Long Island Sound Frozen Over 1740; Chesapeake Bay in 1855-6. (Frederic J. Haskin, in the Chicago News.) The remarkably open winter that- has prevailed in the eastern half of the United States, while in the western section of the country normal winter weather has prevailed, has caused more discussion of the weather than there has been for a long time. Weather experts admit that there are a world of things about the weather they do not know and that without better financial support they will not be able to learn. It is generally believed that if there could be as careful study of the upper air as there is of the air at the surface of the earth many secrets of the weather would be laid bare and forecasting would be placed on a more substantial basis. The weather students believe that kite stations, to register the condition of the upper air, ought to be established at certain points throughout the northern hemisphere, and that these might give a revelation of the little understood laws of weather conditions. This is not the first time that the weather has played peculiar pranks in the United States this season it has given the east September weather in January, while in California frost was invading the citrus, fruit fields. There have been many winters of remarkably cold weather, sometimes all over the country. The coldest weather the world knows does not come from the vicinity of the poles, as one might suppose. In certain parts of Siberia the temperature has reached as low as 40 below zero and at Verkhoyansk for the whole month of January the average was 13 degrees below zero. Poplar River. Mont. seems to have the record in the United States at 63 degrees below zero. Long Record Here. The record of the cold winters in this country is a long one. Some of them have been so cold that New Orleans and Jacksonville had ice and temperatures that seldom are recorded as far north as Atlanta. One of the earliest of the cold winters recorded was that of 1717, the year of “the great snow” in New England. Snow fell for five consecutive days, and in Boston It reached six feet and remained four weeks. The winter of 1740 was another that lives in scanning the weather conditions of two centuries. Intense cold prevailed in Europe as well as in America. Long Island sound was frozen over and people made the journey across on horseback and in vehicles, going from Stamford, Conn., to Long Island. As late as April people rode across the Connecticut River on horseback. The winter of 1765 is the first one where Florida is known to have had much of its fruits destroyed. Only the oranges survived, and this in the freeze of a temperature of six degrees below freezing on the St. John’s River. There were also cold snaps in Florida in 1768 and 1772. The year 1780 vies with 1850 for the record as the coldest winter ever known in America. Thomas Jefferson reported that the Chesapeake Bay was frozen over solid from its head to the mouth of the Potomac. At Annapolis the ice was five or six Inches thick and people rode horseback across the bay for many days, while loaded carriages went over with Impunity. York River, at Williamsburg, Va., was frozen over so that it would carry heavy traffic. In New England a great snow fell and not a flake of it melted for six weeks. Long Island sound was connected with the mainland and Manhattan and Staten islands were connected by a great bridge of ice. Troops crossed on the ice from New Jersey to Staten Island to attack the British soldiers in camp there. Bayou St. John, near New Orleans, was frozen for a considerable time. The Delaware River was frozen over from the 1st of December to the middle of March. During a whole month the temperature at Philadelphia did not rise above freezing. Other Cold Winters. There was a number of cold winters between 1780 and 1800, especially that of 1792, when the Ohio River was frozen over at Wheeling for 44 days so that heavy carriages crossed it; and that of 1796, when both the Ohio and the Mississippi were frozen over to their confluence. The winter of 1800 was also one of unusual cold, especially in the south, the deepest snow ever known there fell In Georgia and Savannah was snowbound for days. Snow and hail fell the whole day on Jan. 10 as far south as St. Mary’s river, Florida. Between the years 1811 and 1817 there were several cold winters and a number of cold summers. In 1812 and 1816 snow and frost occurred in every month during both summers in all of the northern states. Corn did not mature and all the fruits and vegetables were either wholly or partially failures. In Vermont in 1816 snow fell in every part of the state on June 8 and on the highlands and mountains to a depth of five or six inches. A half inch of ice froze on the standing waters and icicles a foot long were common. In 1820 the Hudson River was again frozen over between Paul-us Hook and New York, one of the four times in a century in which such a spectacle was witnessed. Another notably cold winter was that of 1831. The Mississippi froze over to a point 130 miles south of the mouth of the Ohio, a circumstance never before known. The river was covered with floating ice below Natchez, Miss., and at New Orleans ice formed that was strong enough to skate on. The next striking winter weather the country encountered occurred in 1835, which was the first of the great destructions of the orange SOME NATIONA WEATHER RECORDS of Florida. On the St. John River the evergreen oaks shed their leaves and the orange trees split to the roots, and, of course, were killed root and branch. During the winter of this year most of New England was covered with, snow uninterrupted!
Clipped from
Quad-City Times, 27 Feb 1913, Thu, Page 13
The Wonderful predictions of Professor A M. Blake Proven True Proofs that We are in the Torrid Zone-The Rainy Season of the Equator Characteristic of Our Present Climate-Cotton Growing in Kansas-Grasshoppers in Ohio in February
The chief characteristics of the climate of the torrid zone In which we now are owing to the changes in the earth’s axis, and the change of zones is the rainy season; which answers to the severe winter of the temperate and frigid zones. This Rainy season of the equator takes the place of our former winters and thus this, our warmest winter, on record bids fair to be the wettest. While there has not been much suffering from cold “and blizzards have not wrought the mischief, rain has, taken place and caused more damage then both can do combined. Cold waves from Manitoba have not pinched us with their blasts nor’ have’ walls of snow blocked’ transportation but with less fury and bluster, the continuous falling rain in the valleys of the Ohio and Mississippi, and even as far east as the Delaware and as far southwest as the Rio Grande have raised the rivers until they have become swelling floods, sweeping everything before them and extending miles Inland from either bank. The first reports of floods seem to have come from Texas over a month ago, where it had been raining for two or three weeks. The Trinity River was the first to, get upon the rampage. The Brazos River, next followed. Great damage was caused, and for a time all railroad trains had to be abandoned. The ‘floods’ then abated, but at last; accounts, another storm had commenced in the valley of the Rio Grande, with prospects of still further havoc from, the booming rivers.
St. Louis bade fair to escape but on Sunday morning, February 19, mid – winter a rainfall commenced and continued thirty-six hours resulting in one the most remarkably heavy downpours ever known, and raising the river so rapidly that merchandise was swept from the docks almost before it could be reached for removal, trains have had to be abandoned, and all the lower parts of the city and Its neighbor opposite are submerged. The rains which have helped to swell the volume of the Mississippi have not been idle in the valley of the Ohio, and that river is not behind the Father of Waters in Its rapid rise and overflow. The Ohio and Licking rivers hold Cincinnati and Covington almost at their mercy. Trade is at a standstill. Manufacturing Industries are stopped leaving over 20,000 workmen out of employment. Hundreds of families have been driven from their homes. Large quantities of merchandise have been ruined. At Louisville it’ is the same story. All the way from Louisville to Pittsburgh the tributaries of the Ohio are on the rampage, and insignificant little creeks have become respectable rivers, the damage however is not confined to the Ohio and Mississippi valleys. In the eastern states the’ rivers are beginning to rise. In Virginia the Appomattox is over its banks and all through central and southern Illinois and central, Indiana every creek and river is on the rampage doing its best to work destruction and all In the middle of the winter when, if we are not in the Torrid Zone, it would be snowing.
In Kansas they have enjoyed equatorial weather all winter and an intelligent farmer says in a paper of that state: “The weather during the past winter has been worth as much to Kansas as a good crop!” He explained that stock had required very little feeding; that the winter had been exceedingly favorable for outdoor work, which was unusually well advanced, and the roads had been good, and farmers had been able to get their grain to market with little trouble or expense. – combining all these things, he declared that their pecuniary value would equal that of a fair crop. Our informant is undoubtedly correct in this estimate. The winter has been a remarkably favorable one both in country and towns. Railway construction has gone on uninterruptedly and railroad trains have run regularly, without the usual expensive blockades, accidents and delays. Thus they have saved large sums. Farmers have saved an immense aggregate in feed for stock, fuel, hauling, and the advanced state of their season’s work. In the towns and cities nearly all out – door labor has been carried on as during the early fall months, and the savings in fuel, clothing, etc., has been immense
By the change zones old equatorial Africa and the desert of Sahara is now in the temperate zone, hence unprecedented cold. Torrid Zone fish are therefore precipitating themselves upon the coast of this country and reports from England show the same uniform and surprising increase in heat. The following proofs of the truth of wonderful predictions and the change of zones have been collected at random and are so presented:
“In San Francisco men of science and the gaping throng have been alike interested of late in examining an Angle Fish (a torrid zone fish) caught by Italian fishermen twenty miles outside the Farallone Islands: It Is the first of the kind ever, seen in San Francisco, and a handsome specimen. Its wing – like fins, from which its name is taken, “measuring two feet from tip to tip.
Cotton has been successfully cultivated In Kansas, one man near Independence having raised 100 bales, February, 1882
“King Frost is not dethroned as we had begun to imagine here in England. He is only holding his court on the other side of the Mediterranean. The cold is so intense on the Sahara frontier that a single French column in one day lost 490 camels and many men are said to have perished in the snow. ”Globe, (english Newspaper)
L D Hall – in coming uptown the other morning captured a couple of grasshoppers half an inch long, which were hopping on the sidewalk as —well, as grasshoppers. Ohio Gazette Feb 20, 1882
Signs of spring. Robins and blue birds, grasshopper’s spiders and flies. All are here. Medina Gazette Feb 20, 1882.
Mrs. N.E Shaw, of Lodi, sends’ us a very large and well ripened lemon, picked on February 13, from a lemon tree owned and raised by her, which has now about twenty – five lemons ripening. Several larger specimens than ‘the one sent have, dropped, off within the last month. True one sent us is as large as any we ever saw from the south. Medina Gazette Feb 17, 1882.
Clipped from
Fort Wayne Daily Gazette, 26 Feb 1882, Sun, Page 8
THE WEATHER. A Flood in Northeastern Texas, DALLAs, TX Feb. 11 the Trinity River is higher than since 1866. Large amounts of lumber small houses, and driftwood, and considerable dead stock are floating down. The trains on the Missouri Pacific, Gulf of Colorado, & Santa F. Texas Trunk. And Chicago, Texas & Mexican Central have been abandoned for the past two days. It is apprehended that reports of great damage will come in when the storm subsides.
The Warmest Winter on Record. Special dispatch to the Chicago Tribune… DEBUQUE. Ia., Feb. 1 the Ice moved out of the river today, and the ferry will commence running tomorrow. The river remained closed only about a month all winter, being the Shortest tame on record. New Orleans. Feb. 11.A Helena special says the river is above the high water of 1667. The levees are breaking fast.
Clipped from
Chicago Tribune, 12 Feb 1882, Sun, Page 3
Crop Bulletin. For the week ending April 12, 1914. Des Moines, Iowa. The winter of 1913-14 was the warmest winter of record and was, with four exceptions, the driest winter since 1890 the average temperature for the five months, November to March, inclusive, was only 0.4 degrees below the freezing point, and there was less snowfall than for any winter since state-wide observations began. March was warmer and drier than usual, but owing to wet, inclement weather during the last decade of the month and unusually cold weather during the first 11 days of April farm work has been delayed and fruit buds are still dormant. Freezing temperatures were general on four or five mornings of the past week, and as a result but little field work was done. While the sub-soil is dry, the recent rains and snows have been sufficient to thoroughly moisten the surface and the ground is in good condition for plowing and seeding as soon as warmer weather prevails. Fall sown grains and clovers suffered but little damage from winter killing, due to the fact that the temperature was uniformly moderately cool. There are, however, some fields in the extreme southern counties that appears to be spotted, and the Hessian fly is reported to have caused 8 to 10 per cent damage to the crop in Scott county, but the conditions for the state as a whole is at least 5 per cent better than it was on April 1, 1913, and the acreage is greater than it was last year. Seeding of oats has but fairly begun. The bulk of spring wheat seeding is done. But little has been done in the way of gardening and only a few potatoes have been planted. Grass is in good condition, but has barely start to grow. Livestock came through the winter in a thrifty condition. The spring crop is fairly good considering the great loss of breeding stock last season. The week closes clear and warmer. Up to the present time the prospects are favorable for a bountiful crop year. GEO. M. CHAPPELL, Section Director.
This study is part of a continuing pattern. As the environmental left doesn’t get the political action they want, they come up with scarier predictions.
@commondreams.org “A World Without Clouds. Think About That a Minute.”
I did. And thought about this …”new study details POSSIBILITY of devastating climate feedback loop.”
And then I thought, are they LYING WITH FAKE SCIENCE STUDIES AGAIN!?!?
Of course they are.
(REAL) “Scientists Have Found The ‘Missing Link’ From Sunspot Activity To Cosmic Rays-Clouds To Climate Change”
“Fewer sunspots leads to low solar activity and MORE low-level cloud cover that reflects rather than absorbs the incoming solar heat.”
http://notrickszone.com/?s=cosmic+rays+clouds
What a bunch of BS, not to mention a violation of virtually all of the Laws of Thermodynamics.
Who ya gonna call?
Ghost Busters!
I see clouds right now lots and lots of clouds these Eco-wackos are idiots
Hold on a minute. The upwelling areas of the Earth are a very small area of Earth’s surface. They are making a mountain out of a mole hill. I call BS.
I think that the most important control of solar insolation on the facts all agree is the increased evaporation of water vapour caused by a change in SST, which produces more cooling by evaporation, more cooling condensation to form more clouds as humidity increases, and increased albedo. These two effects currently account for 150W/m^2 of significantly variable negative feedback by insolation control, much more powerful than changes in a still theoretical greenhouse effect, that exists only in the computers of modellers whose models don’t predict what actually happens. I wonder why? Which is right. The modellers guesses or the measured reality?
As far as I can see this is study is modeled (guessed) around a relatively small area of seaside compared to the total ocean area, where particular inversion conditions apply, leaving the rest of the oceans to behave more normally, and correct warming and cooling perturbations as they always did before models were invented. The main role of climate science and comuter “scientists” is to produce “evidence” they can’t proveand doesn’t rack reality to monetise the natural climate by replacing unexceptional reality with scary predictions, made up in the virtual reality of a computer model so stuffed with assumptions its predictions are largely worthless, as the IPCC used to admit before they deleted the statement from their library. Those clouds were almost certainly there when the CO2 level was 1200ppm. What happened then? The answer may surprise….
The FACT that the modelled predictions
have ALWAYS been 100% wrong
means that the
GHE hypothesis is wrong
AGW hypothesis is wrong and
The ” climate change ” bs is wrong and
Any attempt to promulgate them as truth
Is a LIE !