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Michael Mann’s Latest Claim: ‘Climate Has No Internal Variability’

by Dr. David Whitehouse
March 11, 2021, 8:43 AM
in News and Opinion
A A
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atlantic oceanThe funny paper that dumps the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO) is so unconvincing it had to be published twice.

It’s been called a tectonic shift in climate science resulting in the junking of thousands of peer-reviewed climate research papers.

It’s also been held up as a prime example of why peer-review of some aspects of climate science is broken. Strange that you might not have noticed.

It was published in a major journal last week. There was also a press release.

It’s a paper whose prime author is Michael Mann of Penn State University. Its main conclusion is that there is no internal variability in the Earth’s climate system, at least not in the past thousand years.

All variability is down to just two things, greenhouse gas forcing and aerosols from volcanoes. Nothing else is needed to confirm computer models.

The main target of the paper is the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation or AMO (Mann coined the term but didn’t discover the effect), a periodic surface temperature cycle of the North Atlantic. It was shown to be an artifact, not real, the authors claimed.

The AMO met its nemesis via a computer model, a useful tool but which is often regarded as superior to reality.

This is the case even when the models are so complicated they need the latest supercomputers and provide a range of outputs for a given set of input parameters.

Mann and company find variations in AMO data, specifically a 50–70-year spectral peak seen in an analysis of 27 proxy records dating back to 1400, although other studies have yielded differing results.

Comparing them to a volcanic activity dataset the authors conclude that the AMO isn’t natural but is an artifact due to a combination of greenhouse gas forcing and cooling due to sulfate particles given off by volcanoes.

Considering the last millennium, they say, the multi-decadal variations are due to pulses of volcanic activity.

They also add that there is additional evidence for this conclusion because in the climate models there are no multi-decadal variations. That’s it then. QED.

Writing in her blog Judith Curry is unimpressed:

“Wow. In one fell swoop, the pesky problems of the ‘grand hiatus’ in the mid 20th century, debates over the attribution of 20th-century warming and the role of multidecadal internal variability, and the difficulty of attributing the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to AGW, all go away. Brilliant! Almost as ‘brilliant’ as the Hockey Stick.”

She goes on to say, “Relying on global climate models, which don’t adequately simulate the multi-decadal internal variability, to ‘prove’ that such multi-decadal internal variability doesn’t exist, is circular reasoning (at best). How does this stuff get published in a journal like Science? Peer review is sooooo broken.”

Substantial discussion and disagreement

In fact, the research that dumps the AMO is so unconvincing it had to be published twice.

As well as coming out in last week’s edition of Science, essentially the same findings were published in Nature Communications in January 2020. Michael Mann’s university even issued a press release about it then.

In the Nature Communications paper, the researchers say that if the AMO and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) existed we would see them in our current simulations “given the current sophistication of climate models.” QED, again.

The Nature Communications paper was originally submitted in July 2019 (it had previously been submitted to another journal) and one Nature reviewer was lukewarm about its merits wondering if Nature Comms was the right place for it (“certainly interesting enough for a more specialized than Nature Communications.”)

It was remarked that the computer models referred to were not good enough to be used to make definitive statements about the reality or otherwise of narrow-band natural multi-decadal or interdecadal variability.

This was pointed out by Kravtsov et al. (2018), who concluded that:

“While climate models exhibit various levels of decadal climate variability and some regional similarities to observations, none of the model simulations considered match the observed signal in terms of its magnitude, spatial patterns, and their sequential time development. These results highlight a substantial degree of uncertainty in our interpretation of the observed climate change using the current generation of climate models.”

Judith Curry emphasizes this point, “There is substantial discussion and disagreement in the climate dynamics community on this topic, which isn’t surprising given the apparent complex interactions between ocean circulations and the AMO, weather and interannual climate variability, and external forcing from the sun and volcanoes.”

The paper had its supporters, and it did get through.

“In closing,” says Curry, “Mann’s quest to cancel the Medieval Warm Period and now the AMO, in the interests of showing that recent warming is 100% anthropogenic, is not at all convincing to scientists who understand anything about climate dynamics and global climate models.”

There is another way of looking a Mann’s findings. Roger Pielke Jr. remarked, “Maybe it’s just me, but it would seem that it should be much bigger news that 15,000+ peer-reviewed climate research papers published since 2000 are based on a non-existent phenomenon and are thus now discredited. “

Among them would be a recent paper by two Harvard University scientists.

They want to explain why sea surface temperatures were higher during World War 2, a longstanding topic of debate. They conclude that better corrections are needed for the way the temperature was measured using the intake of water from ships.

They find a solution that accounts for the increase. Interesting that both ways account for the World War 2 ocean anomaly. Two examples of observational bias.

Read more at the GWPF

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Comments 8

  1. Colin Harkin says:
    4 years ago

    Michel Mann is a conman. He would fit in perfectly in the Rockys in 1800, on the back of a wagon selling an Elixir to fix broken bones. Tim Ball sorted this nut case out perfectly.

  2. Gumnut says:
    4 years ago

    Can a computer model cancel gravity too?

    I’ve always wanted to fly.

  3. Brian James says:
    4 years ago

    There was s a new player in on the global scam.

    Jan 25, 2021 Banks must step up to help business reach net zero

    Companies have proven remarkably resilient in weathering the turmoil brought by COVID-19. While business leaders find new ways of working to cope with the disruption to human lives, a deeper change is underway that affects all life on this planet. Both factors will reshape business.

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/banks-help-business-reach-net-zero/

  4. Dr Tim Ball - Climatologist says:
    4 years ago

    Dr Tim Ball – Historical Climatologist
    http://www.generalistjournal.com

    Book ‘The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science’.

    Book “Human Caused Global Warming”, ‘The Biggest Deception in History’.

    https://www.technocracy.news/dr-tim-ball-on-climate-lies-wrapped-in-deception-smothered-with-delusion/

  5. Brian R Catt says:
    4 years ago

    This is totally in denial of the overtly obvious cycles in the ice core samples from multiple sites in the NH and SH. Piltdown Mann is utterly delusional. Plot lost.

    Not least because his early hokey schtick nonsense fraud depends on this simple and overtly false in fact presumption, just as the IPCC CO2ist science starts by assuming the atmosphere controls the climate and changes in CO2 within in it have a significant effect upon the climate, and control it, obvious nonsnese given their scale, and the fact that the ocean controls the atmospheric climate and, in particular, that the ocean’s evaporative feedback controls the climate equilibrium with the massive control of convected latent heat at the Tropics and the albedo of the clouds that produces. Yet nobody says so. WHY?

    But stinerentlt no atural change? Really MIchael? Is there any science you don’t deny? “All we see is cycles” Carl-Otto Weiss. This Mann is delusionally incompetent, unsuitable to hold his post. Some ice cores from the poles, both of them.
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/lp8zqtvs1fz7ulz/GISP2%20REality%20%282%7D.jpg?dl=0
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/h7qvbhowkniu9x3/NGRIP%2010Ka%20d18O.jpg?dl=0
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/ju66ng9qp729eeh/25Ka%20BP%20of%20EDC.jpg?dl=0

  6. hunterson7 says:
    4 years ago

    Mann is so anti-scientofic lately he is not even wrong. He is pointless.

  7. Spurwing Plover says:
    4 years ago

    Mann is just another liberal nut case just like Bill Nye and David Suzuki sitting there and with the M.S. Media spreads their load of mindless banter to the rest of us all Yet their not willing to take up living in a Grass Hut or a Cave

  8. Tom says:
    4 years ago

    So insane as to not even be worthy of further thought.

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