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Media Outlet Cites Computer Models To Push Climate Disinfo On Landfalling Hurricanes

by Linnea Lueken
May 31, 2023, 10:08 AM
in News and Opinion
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A
5

hurricane reef wavesA CBS News Philidelphia segment claims that climate change will cause an increase in hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.

This claim is unsubstantiated and undermined by the available evidence.

Rather than citing data or the science provided by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, CBS anchor David Schechter cites model projections for his claims. [emphasis, links added]

The past few decades of warming have yielded no increase in hurricane landfalls—quite the opposite.

Aside from claiming climate change will make landfalling hurricanes more frequent on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, Schechter also claims that scientists are “certain” that hurricanes are getting stronger.

Warming ocean temperatures are pointed to as the main cause of alleged stronger hurricanes, but sea temperatures are only one factor in driving hurricane formation and strength.

Another major factor is wind shear. Many hurricane researchers predict that global warming will likely increase wind shear, which will inhibit the formation of hurricanes and cause them to dissipate or become disorganized faster, despite an increase in water temperature.

Despite slow warming over the past few decades, data refutes assertions that hurricanes have become stronger than they were in the past. Evidence suggests the opposite is true.

One measure of tropical cyclone strength, Accumulated Cyclone Energy, shows no increase over time in the Northern Hemisphere, or the globe at large over the past decades of modest warming. (See Figure below)

Figure 1: From Dr. Ryan Maue, at https://climatlas.com/tropical/

Regarding hurricane landfall numbers, the claim that they will increase in the future is similarly speculative.

Schechter interviewed Dr. Kristen Corbosiero, a professor at the State University of New York in Albany, who acknowledged that data does not point to an increase in the number of future hurricanes.

Yet, he and Schechter then pointed to a single study published in Science Advances, which projects possible hurricane increases based on climate model projections.

However, as Climate Realism has previously explained here, here, and here, for instance, climate models are seriously flawed, producing projections that have consistently failed to materialize in the real world.

Indeed, real-world data on hurricane landfalls show that they have been much less frequent in recent decades than in the past.

Climate at a Glance: Hurricanes explains that the U.S. “went more than a decade (2005 through 2017) without a major hurricane—a hurricane measuring Category 3 or higher—making landfall. That is the longest such period in recorded history.”

Florida went 11 years without a single landfalling hurricane of any size until 2016.

Again, available data plotting major U.S. hurricane landfalls show no increasing trend. (See figure below)

Figure 2: Number of continental United States landfalling hurricanes 1900–2019. Left, all hurricanes, right, major hurricanes (category 3 and above), with (insignificant) regression lines, (Klotzbach et al., 2018), with 2018–2020 updated from personal communication by Anthony Watts with lead authors.

And the data suggests that the number of major hurricanes has modestly decreased globally in recent decades. (See Figure 3 below)

Figure 3: From Dr. Ryan Maue, at https://climatlas.com/tropical/

Climate Realism has debunked the false claims on hurricanes dozens of times, but it is worth pointing out once again that even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there is only “low” confidence that any changes in tropical cyclone activity can be attributed to human influence and admits that it has detected no trend of increasing hurricane numbers or intensity.

Neither the unalarming available data nor the IPCC’s findings have prevented the media from using one of the most destructive natural events in the world—tropical cyclones—to stoke alarm about the future under modest warming.

Coastal cities, like Philadelphia, are wise to prepare for hurricanes. However, despite Philly’s CBS News’ unsubstantiated claims, Philadelphians need not fear such terrible weather events any more than they have in the past.

Top photo by GEORGE DESIPRIS

Read more at Climate Realism

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Comments 5

  1. SPURWING PLOVER says:
    2 years ago

    See B.S. News the Lying Eye of Satan once again proves with the M.S. Media cant ever be trusted less news then it is leftists propaganda

  2. drugs says:
    2 years ago

    Nice blog here! Also your web site loads up very fast! What host are you using?
    Can I get your affiliate link to your host? I wish my site loaded up as quickly as yours lol

  3. Dave O says:
    2 years ago

    Last year (2022) was supposed to be the most destructive catastrophic hurricane season on record. Every media outlet picked up the story. But the ‘chicken-little-esque’ story never occurred, and in fact it was a very quiet hurricane season on the U.S. gulf coast. Guess how many media outlets provided a follow-up retrospective on the once-assumed calamitous hurricane-season story?

  4. Spurwing Plover says:
    2 years ago

    The Computer Models are only as honest as the persons who create them and all those the M.S. Media depend upon and questinble at that

  5. SPURWING PLOVER says:
    2 years ago

    See B.S. News Pittsburg once again fakes the news and lies to the viewers abut Hurricanes and Climate Change then watches as their rating collapse

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