The carbon tax will have to increase substantially – from €100 per person a year to €1,500 a year – if Ireland is to meet legally-binding targets on reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, according to ESRI projections.
A new computational model developed by the institute that factors in economic data, environmental trends, and energy consumption, has found carbon tax on fossil fuels will need to increase to €300 per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted over the coming decade to avoid substantial fines in the form of compliance costs.
The current rate of €20 per tonne was not increased in the budget as had been widely anticipated, although Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Minister for Climate Action Richard Bruton have confirmed it is set to increase in coming years.
A rise to €30 a tonne as was envisaged would have added about €1 to a bag of coal and about 25 cents to a bale of briquettes, as well as increasing the price of oil and gas.
However, a €300 carbon tax would only be sufficient to enable Ireland to meet its targets if there were reductions in agricultural emissions in particular (currently accounting for a third of Ireland’s emissions), the ESRI analysis shows.
If there was no reduction in carbon emissions arising from farming, a carbon tax rate of €470 per tonne by 2030 would be necessary, research officer Dr. Kelly de Bruin confirmed at an ESRI briefing to launch its new Ireland Environment, Energy and Economy model (I3E).
The required tax, she said, was far higher than the level called for by Prof John FitzGerald of the Climate Change Advisory Council, and what was sought by the Environmental Pillar, which represents the country’s environmental and climate change NGOs.
Dr. Kelly de Bruin accepted the necessary level of the carbon tax “seems insane” but international research would confirm this is what’s required – although Ireland has unique circumstances compared to other EU countries.
It was widely accepted that carbon tax was considered the most efficient way to reduce emissions, she stressed, and was needed as “the cornerstone of any carbon policy”. Other climate mitigation measures were not factored into the ESRI’s latest projections.
The carbon tax raised €390 million in 2014, but it should be noted it amounted to less than 2 percent of total taxes on commodities that people pay every day, Dr. Kelly added.
That said, she did not think we would see a €400 per tonne carbon tax “anytime soon”. There was a lot of misconception about the carbon tax, however, in that people feel it’s already very high. “Carbon tax needs better marketing,” she suggested.
The ESRI has done separate analysis on “compensation mechanisms” through the use of social welfare to cushion the effects of the tax on the disadvantaged.
Latest figures suggest that per capita emissions in Ireland are close to five tonnes of CO2 a year – which translates to each citizen paying €100 a year based on the current carbon tax rate.
Ireland faces the most stringent reductions in emissions of any member state in what is known as “Non-Emissions Trading System” sectors which includes transport; agriculture, waste, services and government, Dr. Kelly said.
The EU Emissions Trading System applies mainly to large-scale industrial facilities and the aviation sector, which are heavy carbon polluters.
Non-ETS emissions in Ireland must be reduced by 20 percent on 2005 levels by 2020, but the EPA estimates the overall reduction will be 1 percent at best, due to economic growth and agricultural expansion. The 2030 target is 30 percent.
In a scenario where targets are missed, Ireland is facing penalties or having to pay for carbon permits, which amounted to “lost money”, Dr. Kelly said.
Read more at Irish Times
Bewildering that parts of the UK wish to remain in the European Union. Tribalism more than sound reasoning. The EU is crumbling. As for the New World Order?
Give up, already.
Manufacturing and construction create pollution. There is a movement starting in Canada to support Trudeau and barbie in their efforts to reduce pollution. Don’t buy Made in Canada products wherever possible. Do the same in Ireland. Fewer purchases means fewer companies means fewer people traveling to work or wasting money buying vehicles or even clothes to wear to work. Another good idea – invest in funds that don’t have anything to do with Ireland. Much of my investing is out of Canada and I am moving more as the opportunity presents itself. Trudeau would be proud of me, but I am still waiting for my Hero medal.
Al Gore will never debate his crack-pot theory of MANBEARPIG climate change because he don’t want to be proven a bare faced liar on national TV
The whole idea that Greenhouse Gas emissions are warming or harmful needs to be challenged. Water Vapor is the chief so-called Greenhouse Gas. Are we to ban water vapor? What a hope! It is complete nonsense. Without Carbon Dioxide the Greens could not exist, for we would have a brown world devoid of vegetation. Besides which Greenhouse Gase cool the Earth. Agreed?
There should be a massive effort to convince the “Carbon Crowd” that CO2 is not, and cannot cause catastrophic global warming, hence climate change.
The GHG Theory is a falsehood.
My logical reaction is that the “greens” will never be convinced. There are the pons, who only know what they are told by others and they are surrounded by people telling the same lie. The news media censors out any other point of view.
There are those who have a better understanding, including their desire to use the climate change movement to impose new taxes, destroy free enterprise, and a host of other hidden agenda items. We could be in the middle of a mini ice age and these people would be blaming our emissions for the ice age and saying we need to make deep cuts.
There is some hope. My daughter is a conservative but belongs to a large fencing club in Seattle where everyone else is a liberal. She said at the club people were commenting that it is a good thing Washington State’s tax on carbon dioxide emissions didn’t pass. It appears that their main concern was the cost of the initiative. As the cost of the green agenda becomes more obvious and has impact on families we can expect less support for it. In France they were they are rebelling against the carbon dioxide taxes.
If the high taxes on carbon dioxide emissions mentioned in this article actually happen there is an excellent chance Ireland will follow France in massive citizen protests.
Nations that agree to penalties for missing emission targets are incredibly stupid. There a lot of nations in the European Union who have done so. There might be a way that they can collective cancel these penalties.
A €1,500 per person a year is more than that if you consider families. That tax also includes children. For a family of four, €1,500 translates to €6,000 a year.
We know the Trudeau Carbon Tax goes to support his favorite Muslim terrorist cults including $100 million to Hamas. The tax in British Columbia has had no effect on pollution in China or India and is therefore a complete waste.
Looks like the cititzen’s of the Emerald Isle will have to pay higher taxes just to acheive the utopian dreams of dlusional liberal snowflakes