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New Study: Ice Core Data Shows Modern Warming Is Statistically Unremarkable

A new analysis finds today's rate of warming has precedent — lots of it.

by Kenneth Richard
March 05, 2026, 3:00 PM
in Bipolar, News and Opinion, Science
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A
1

closeup ice cores
There is nothing unprecedented or even significant about modern warming magnitudes or rates. [some emphasis, links added]

Antarctic ice cores are routinely used to represent not only global-scale CO2 records, but also global temperature records over the last 800,000 years.

Interestingly, if we compare modern Antarctica to paleo Antarctica, we learn “no continent-scale warming of Antarctic temperature is evident in the last century.”

A new statistical probability analysis (Hatton, 2026) using Vostok temperature data indicates the reported 1.1°C global warming over the last century (since the 1920s) is “not even unusual” within the context of the last 20,000 years, as “16% of the centuries since the end of the last Ice Age show a rise at least as big [1.1°C] as the current century.”

As current warming rates are “quite commonplace,” this calls into question the push to attribute temperature changes to human activity.

Image Source: Hatton, 2026

For further context, the Northern Hemisphere is said to have warmed by 4-5°C “within a few decades” 14,500 years ago (Ivanovic et al., 2017), and during these centuries, sea levels rose at rates of up to 7.5 meters per century (Smith et al., 2011), which is 20-30 times faster than modern rates.

Image Source: Ivanovic et al., 2017 and Smith et al., 2011

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Comments 1

  1. Rafe Champion says:
    1 hour ago

    Important news and I thought we knew that already.
    If you are worried about warming and CO2, just read a good book or two and relax!
    https://www.amazon.com.au/s?k=Rafe+Champion&i=stripbooks&crid=GZ66NWUYZ193&sprefix=rafe+champion%2Cstripbooks%2C262&ref=nb_sb_noss

    Since the Little Ice Age ended some 300 years ago, warming has been unequivocally beneficial and we are still a degree or more short of the Roman Warm Period which was the best time on earth for living things.
    Fear of warming and CO2 has driven the most damaging public policy blunder on record, with trillions of dollars wasted around the western world on the attempt to transition to intermittent wind and solar power.
    Would you spend a single dollar to get the results of this great experiment? More expensive and less reliable power with catastrophic environmental impacts.
    https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/its-time-to-simplify-the-grid

    Reply

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