Blackout News reports that despite ambitious international climate targets and the promise of a rapid energy transition, we are witnessing a paradoxical development: Global demand for fossil fuels has not fallen, but continues to increase. [emphasis, links added]
The world economy’s growing hunger for energy directly clashes with political expectations, and the so-called “peak demand” for oil and gas, once predicted by experts, is currently not in sight.
Just a few years ago, there was optimism when the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced an impending peak in fossil fuel demand. This confidence supported many climate strategies.
However, rising economic risks and political headwinds led many governments to revise their strategies. The consequence: The energy transition lost momentum while real power demand increased.
Earlier forecasts thus have become obsolete, and the expected rapid electrification of the economy is progressing more slowly than planned.
Fossil fuels are not being replaced
A central problem is that renewable energies are currently not replacing conventional sources, but merely supplementing them. We are in a Phase of Addition.
Although solar and wind power are being expanded massively, this is not enough to meet the strongly growing global energy demand.
This development is intensified by several factors:
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Electrification of mobility: Although cars without internal combustion engines are increasing, the expansion of charging infrastructure is lagging.
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Heating transition: Replacing gas heating systems with electric alternatives leads to enormous peak loads in the power grid in many regions.
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Growing demand: Additional demands for cooling, seawater desalination, and digital services are intensifying the global energy hunger.
As a result, oil remains in strong demand, and gas retains its role as a flexible reserve, blocking a rapid departure from fossil sources.
Steady at least until 2040
Even in less dynamic models like the CPS scenario, the quantities of oil and gas remain stable well past 2040. Global oil consumption remains at around 100 million barrels per day.
This finding shows how deeply the market is permeated by fossil fuels, which remain the cornerstone of supply.
If renewables were really as good as many claim, then why have they failed to curb fossil fuel use? Obviously, they are nothing what their proponents claim them to be.
Read more at No Tricks Zone
