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The Folly Of Global Climate Forecasting

by Trevor Thomas
February 11, 2020, 2:58 PM
in News and Opinion
Reading Time: 5 mins read
A A
23

climate protest chillyIt was particularly warm in Northeast Georgia this past week — no doubt thrilling the Earth-worshipping faithful. We’ve also been very wet. After the latest round of rain, temperatures returned to a more winterlike feel.

On this past Friday, there were a few murmurings of small amounts of snow on Saturday morning. Of course, any amount of snow in Georgia is news, but as late as Friday evening…most forecasts were making little of the potential snowy event.

According to the Friday forecasts, most of north Georgia was only going to get one-half inch to one inch of snow, and temperatures were going to warm into the mid-to-upper forties by Saturday afternoon.

Thus, any snow that fell was supposed to melt quickly. We were paying special attention to these forecasts because we were traveling several miles for a karate tournament on Saturday morning.

Even on Saturday morning, forecasters were still saying the snow was going to be minimal and not much of a concern. We left our northeast Georgia house headed southwest about 9:30 a.m. Saturday morning. The snow was just starting to fall.

The storm was moving southwest to northeast, so we were heading right into it. As we traveled, the snowfall was getting heavier. The precipitation on radar looked impressive. We were barely thirty minutes down the road, and we started getting nervous.

The snow was quickly piling up and the traffic was slowing down. It was as if we were headed to a global warming conference and Al Gore’s plane had just landed!

As we continued on our way we saw several cars on the sides of the road, unable to navigate the snow-covered asphalt. What’s more, as we communicated with friends already at the tournament, we were getting reports of road closures.

We arrived safely at the tournament, but the parking lot was perhaps the most dangerous asphalt that we encountered. We were beginning to wonder if we were going to end up sleeping on the floor of a high school gym.

After the tournament, we made it home safely, but it was a mess! Contrary to the forecasts that were only hours old, much of north Georgia saw five to six inches of snow, and the temperatures never rose past the mid-thirties. Roads all across the area were closed.

Again, I don’t mind an inaccurate forecast. I’m very used to them, especially in the winter in the southeastern United States. I’m sure it happens all over the U.S. and the world every day. Even with all of our advanced technology, weather forecasting is a very tricky business.

However, the missed forecast with this recent weather event highlights the kind of folly that is behind all of the doom and gloom predictions coming from Al Gore’s disciples.

Even people who know what they are talking about have a difficult time predicting accurately the local weather just days, and sometimes even hours, in advance — yet the climate-change “faithful” (“fools” is more appropriate) would have us drastically change our energy policy and enact crippling emission controls — which would do virtually nothing to change the climate — based on their dire predictions about the global climate that are decades and sometimes centuries in advance.

To be accurate in weather — or climate — forecasting, it helps when one’s forecasts are based on sound science.

Yet, as John Nolte noted just a few months ago, climate “experts” are zero for forty-one (now 0 for 43!) in their doomsday predictions.

Thus, why would anyone think that so-called climate “science” is in any way reliable? These climate frauds have long relied on the deceptive use of data to push their big-government agenda.

Daily, it seems, we are subjected to “another global warming fraud.” Everybody needs an Apocalypse, I suppose.

Climate science has become such a joke that the “faithful” are now being led by a child. As Josef Joffe recently put it,

Greta Thunberg, the teenager from Stockholm, is the prophet of a new religion sweeping the West. Call it Climatism. Like any religion worthy of the name, it comes with its own catechism (what to believe) and eschatology (how the world will end).

Thunberg’s bible is the latest report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which gives us 12 years to save civilization as we know it.

We have prayed to the false gods of fossil-fired growth, runs Thunberg’s indictment. Guilty are the adults who have “lied to us” and given us “false hope.” But her children’s crusade — no-school “Fridays for Future” — will show the path to redemption.

Climate science has become such a joke that the “faithful” are now “confessing their sins” to plants. As Tyler O’Neil noted last year,

Union Theological Seminary hosted a chapel service in which self-identified Christians confessed their climate sins to plants. No, this is not satire from the Babylon Bee — this really happened, and the seminary is defending it without shame…

“In worship, our community confessed the harm we’ve done to plants, speaking directly in repentance. This is a beautiful ritual,” the seminary announced on Twitter.

“We are in the throes of a climate emergency, a crisis created by humanity’s arrogance, our disregard for Creation. Far too often, we see the natural world only as resources to be extracted for our use, not divinely created in their own right — worthy of honor, thanks and care.”

It is becoming increasingly clear that anthropogenic climate change is nothing more than, as Australia’s Ian Plimer put it years ago, “the new religion of First World urban elites.”

With the mounting evidence against it and the continued crumbling of its “holy” documents, it’s developing into a rather poor religion at that.

Thus, when it comes to the “experts” and predicting the future — especially the future global climate — as Jeff Jacoby noted last winter, your guess is as good as theirs.

It seems this is also often the case with your local weather forecasts. Remember all of this the next time you encounter someone telling you what the global climate is going to be decades down the road.

Read more at American Thinker

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Comments 23

  1. YouKnowWho says:
    6 years ago

    Actually, according to WUWTs own Surface Station Study, the pristine group of rural stations show a Sharper temperature rise.

    Reply
    • Sonnyhill says:
      6 years ago

      I say that it’s because our air today is cleaner than twenty or thirty years ago. Immediately after 9-11, when all aircraft in America were grounded for several days, researchers found that surface temperature climbed noticeably.
      Today, particulate emissions like sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxides and soot have been dramatically reduced. These particulates promote the formation of clouds, ie shade.

      Reply
  2. Sonnyhill says:
    6 years ago

    The amount of time and effort that has been invested in pasteurizing and homogenizing the Earth based temperature data and the pretzel logic offered to justify the process makes me question the results. Global average temperature is a mutt. Who asked for it? The Warmists.
    What we know for sure is that cities run hotter than outlying rural areas, and that cities grow bigger.

    Reply
  3. Sonnyhill says:
    6 years ago

    I believe that satellite readings are hard to mess with. Who would question them? Unfortunately, the satellite information is recent history only.
    I looked at a graph that starts in 1979, when we were worried about another Ice Age. That’s not a good starting point if you want to argue that the atmosphere isn’t warming. It has been , since 1979.
    Still, the temperature data from the satellites is reliable. Patience is a virtue.

    Reply
    • YouKnowWho says:
      6 years ago

      As the satellite record so closely matches the land-based records for those 40 years, then it would be logical to conclude they were accurate for the time before satellites as well.

      Reply
  4. Roger Payne says:
    6 years ago

    Interesting that orthodox Christians who look to the Bible, accuse us of “sins to plants” and offence against the natural world. This has some truth in it insofar as we have often abused it, but the Bible does have Yahweh telling his newly created human beings they “have dominion” over creation……Many detailed past records show that during the Little Ice Age, 1350 to 1850 approximately, there were catastrophic floods, blazing heatwaves, bitter winters, storms, violent shifts of weather. And people confessing their sins and seeing it all as punishment. What is different?

    Reply
  5. YouKnowWho says:
    6 years ago

    This past June, July, September, November and January were the warmest ever recorded and this was NOT an El Nino year.

    Seems like a lot of “alarmest” predictions are now coming true.

    Reply
    • pater eusebius tenebrarum says:
      6 years ago

      No, they weren’t. And no, not a single alarmist prediction has ever come true and none ever will.

      Reply
      • YouKnowWho says:
        6 years ago

        Uhh – according to UAH, NOAA, NASA and JAXA, they were. And BTW, July 2019 was the hottest month ever recorded period.

        Reply
        • Gerry says:
          6 years ago

          No. For the decade 2010-2019, the satellite temperatures averaged only 0.15 C higher than in the previous decade (1990-1999). That’s less than a third of a degree F, which no one would even notice over 10 years.

          BUT NASA use a slightly different methods to analyze global surface temperatures. **

          They use surface measurements. Why not use global satellite measurements when the results are straight forward???

          Here’s why… The surface measurements are analyzed subjected to an algorithm that considers the sparse spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heat island effects that COULD skew the conclusions. And (predictably) NASA comes up with a temperature of 0.95 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average and .80 degrees Celsius HIGHER than the satellite measurement of 0.15 C for the decade 2010 through 2019!

          “NASA’s temperature analyses incorporate surface temperature measurements from more than 20,000 weather stations, ship- and buoy-based observations of sea surface temperatures, and temperature measurements from Antarctic research stations.

          These in situ measurements are analyzed using an algorithm that considers the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heat island effects that could skew the conclusions. These calculations produce the global average temperature deviations from the baseline period of 1951 to 1980.

          NOAA scientists used much of the same raw temperature data, but with a different interpolation into the Earth’s polar and other data-poor regions. NOAA’s analysis found 2019 global temperatures were 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit (0.95 degrees Celsius) above the 20th century average.

          NASA’s full 2019 surface temperature data set and the complete methodology used for the temperature calculation and its uncertainties are available at:”

          https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp

          ** https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/

          Reply
          • YouKnowWho says:
            6 years ago

            July 2019 was hottest month on record for the planet: Polar sea ice melted to record lows — ScienceDaily.com

            “The average global temperature in July was 1.71 degrees F above the 20th-century average of 60.4 degrees, making it the hottest July in the 140-year record, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.”

          • YouKnowWho says:
            6 years ago

            About a decade ago, both BEST and Anthony Watts of WUWT did their own re-examinations of the temperature record.
            BEST was a Koch Brothers funded project that reviewed over 1 BILLION data points from ALL temperature records from ALL available organizations for as far back as they could go.
            Watts was crowd funded and he did the most comprehensive review of the integrity of the physical characteristics of the recording stations – The Surface Stations Study.
            Conclusions? Both independent assessments BOLSTERED the existing temperature record of NOAA, NASA, UAH, JAXA, RSS and HADCRU.

        • Graham McDonald says:
          6 years ago

          In fact, we found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail
          to meet the National Weather Service’s own siting requirements that stations
          must be 30 meters (about 100 feet) or more away from an artificial heating
          or reflecting source.
          The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable. And since the
          U.S. record is thought to be “the best in the world,” it follows that the global database is
          likely similarly compromised and unreliable.
          http://www.surfacestations.org

          Reply
          • YouKnowWho says:
            6 years ago

            Actually, there is a pristine group of recording stations that NASA maintains which is well away from urban sprawl. These are used to calibrate others when their environment changes, they go from analogue to digital or they change the times if measurements.
            Surprisingly, this set of stations shows an even greater temperature trend.
            But if you don’t like landbased measurements, what do the satellites say? UAH says that 6 months in the last 9 (June, July, September, November and January) were the warmest recorded for that month.

  6. Spurwing Plover says:
    6 years ago

    I mean according to crack-pots like Al Gore the Arctic Ice Caps was suppost be long gone by now if you real ever case to listen to his mindless banter or hear his idiotic poem Gore has never been right but liberal Nit-Wits still listen to his nonsense and read his stupid poem on every Earth Day

    Reply
    • YouKnowWho says:
      6 years ago

      Actually, Al Gore was quoting another scientist who in 2007 was saying “with the current rate of melt, the Arctic will be ice free in 5 years” (he was looking at the steep drop of ice in that summer).

      Sounds a bit different to the lie you told, but accuracy matters with most people (deniers excepted).

      Reply
      • Gerry says:
        6 years ago

        No. Al Gore DID make a series of high-profile statements that Arctic sea ice could be completely gone by 2014. Fact!

        Whether Al was plagiarizing or promoting the propaganda of some alarmist climate scientist doesn’t matter. He WAS purposely promoting a politically motivated alarmist LIE that time has proved to be false. Just as every alarmist climate scientist prediction whose “gonna happen by” date is past has been 100% false.

        Reply
        • YouKnowWho says:
          6 years ago

          No he did not.
          However, if you can find a VALID AND VERIFIED reference to Gore making that statement exactly as you claim, I will happily proclaim my mistake.
          Regarding the “alarmist lies”: The warmest 21 years on record have occurred in the last 23 with the past 6 years hottest of all. Time for you to embrace reality.

          Reply
  7. Carl Chappell says:
    6 years ago

    Nice to know, Trevor, that somebody else in NE Georgia understands the folly of trying to not only predict future climates but thinking they can actually control it! I am comforted in knowing that your family and those closest to you are being given the actual truth! Thanks!

    Reply
  8. Boxorox says:
    6 years ago

    I don’t really understand what the big deal is about predicting climate. It’s very easy and I laugh at those who think it’ has to be complicated. Here’s what we’ll see:
    In the future years, decades and centuries, it will be warm. At times it will be cold, all other times, it will be more of the same.
    Plesae send your contributions in the form of small change to the Holy Synod of Boxorox.
    Thank you

    Reply
  9. Stephen Heins says:
    6 years ago

    Thanks for comic piece about trying to predict the immediate and more distant futures, Trevor.

    As I like to say, “ Don’t be surprised if many visionaries, forecasters, predictors, innovators, and futurists develop glaucoma or are proven dead wrong after death.”

    Reply
  10. LibertarianJim says:
    6 years ago

    This illustrates the common error of the climate change fanatics: Confusing weather with climate. They are not the same thing!

    Reply
    • Private Citizen says:
      6 years ago

      We’re in the money! We’re in the money!
      IEA head calls for grand coalition to address climate, 13 February 2020
      ” According to the IEA, this was primarily due to declining emissions from electricity generation in advanced economies, thanks to the expanding role of renewable sources (mainly wind and solar), fuel switching from coal to natural gas, and higher nuclear power generation.”

      Reply

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