Climate Expert: A Review Of U.S. Climate Extremes In 2023

The year is not quite in the books, but it is late enough that we can look back at this year’s weather and climate extremes.

We are all well aware of the narrative that the weather is quickly getting worse. Unfortunately, the data does not agree. ¹

The weather — and certainly the impacts — of the past 12 months in the United States was actually pretty typical, even benign, in historical context. ² [emphasis, links added]

The one variable that stands out among extreme weather is temperature — extremely high temperatures in summer and (in particular) winter were very high in 2023, both of which contribute to a long-term trend that the IPCC has attributed primarily to the emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.

Here is the top-line summary in the table below.

This year will come in well below average for the total and insured economic costs of disasters in the United States, mainly because the only landfalling Hurricane (Idalia) resulted in less than $1 billion in total damages, far less than the $22+ billion of an average hurricane season.

Let’s take a quick, but detailed, look at 2023.

Average Temperature Anomaly

Month-by-month, 2023 ventured above and below the zero line of the NOAA temperature anomaly time series.

You can see from the figure above that there has been no trend in this time series since December 2000, which is counter to what has occurred globally.

Extreme Heat and Cold

The figures above for January (top) and July (bottom) show clearly that maximum temperatures have increased since 1895 for both winter and summer. The 2023 January maximums are much more impressive than the July maximums.

Also, take a look at the 1930s for July, the three big dips in 1915, 1950, and 1992, and 1976-1977-1978 for January — Brrr! ³

Hurricanes

You can see a full post on the US 2023 hurricane season here. Lots of interesting details, but as far as landfalls and damage … Zzzz.

Flooding

The US sees a lot of flooding every year. It is normal. This year saw its fair share but nothing unusual or particularly damaging.

Disaster declarations don’t tell us anything about climate, but they do tell us something about disaster declarations — 2023 saw (to date) 19 flood-related FEMA disaster declarations, which is just about exactly the average from 2000-2022. ⁴

You can dive much deeper into trends in US floods in this recent post. 2023 will no doubt be consistent with the trends documented there.

Drought

2023 was not particularly exceptional for drought in a long-term context.

In fact, compared to one year ago, 2023 has seen a marked improvement in US drought conditions, as you can see below — with December 2022 on the left and December 2023 on the right.

2023 ends the year just about in the 50th percentile of months since 2000 for areas under exceptional and extreme drought.

The figure below shows the proportion of US land area characterized as “very wet” and “very dry” from 1895 to 2023.

If you squint, you can see that “very dry” has declined a bit, with extremes reduced dramatically since the 1950s, while “very wet” has increased, with more extremes since the 1980s. Fascinating, as Spock would say.

Tornados, Hail, Wind

The figures above show from left to right, tornadoes, hail, and wind local storm report counts, based on preliminary data for 2023. The data shows that tornadoes are a bit above the recent average and hail is a bit below.

Winds, in contrast, were exceptionally high in 2023. Given that convective storms produce tornadoes, hail, and winds, I am looking forward to how meteorologists explain these contrasting trends of 2023.

Roger Pielke Jr. has been a professor at the University of Colorado since 2001. Previously, he was a staff scientist in the Environmental and Societal Impacts Group of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. He has degrees in mathematics, public policy, and political science, and is the author of numerous books. (Amazon).

Read the full post at The Honest Broker