
As the end of 2025 nears, the question arises: What can Americans expect in the world of energy policy in 2026? [emphasis, links added]
Predicting future events where energy is concerned is always a risky enterprise. After all, if anyone could accurately foresee where, say, the Brent price for crude oil would sit a week from today, that person would soon become fabulously wealthy and never have to work another day in his or her life.
But no one can actually do that because too many widely disparate factors impact where prices will head on a daily basis. This overarching theme holds true in most areas of the widely diverse energy space.
Still, just as energy details like exact future oil prices or rig count levels are impossible to know with certainty, some overarching trends are entirely foreseeable.
As an example, it was entirely predictable a year ago that 2025 would become a year in which an energy policy revolution would take place.
Donald Trump had been elected to a second term and was in the process of naming cabinet nominees who would lead an effort to reverse the onerous regulations and economically ruinous subsidy spending of the Biden years.
A policy revolution was entirely predictable, even though, as I wrote at the time, it would take a somewhat different form than many were expecting.
There would be no replay of the “Drill, Baby, Drill” agenda of Trump’s first term, mainly due to a series of intractable economic factors.
Instead, we’d have a “Build, Baby, Build” revolution in which policy changes have focused on setting the conditions for a boom in energy infrastructure like pipelines, LNG export facilities, baseload power generation, major transmission projects, new and expanded mining operations, and more into place.
With business-oriented cabinet officials like Chris Wright at the Energy Department and Doug Burgum at Interior leading the way, it was easy to predict that the second Trumpian energy revolution would focus on measures that allow markets, not the dictates of central government planners, to lead the charge.
The command-and-control schemes, crony capitalism, and green subsidies would be repealed or phased away. Banks and investment houses would be put on notice that their discriminatory, ESG-focused lending practices would be policed.
Rather than focus their personal energy on finding ways to punish disfavored energy players, administration officials would spend their days finding ways to speed up permitting processes.
Those things and more all came about in Year One of this second Trump presidency. It has been a true policy-driven revolution.
Now, as the dawn of 2026 nears, the direction of the administration’s Year Two agenda becomes equally predictable: Consolidation of the gains made in 2025.
The ending/phasing out of the green subsidies must be maintained since they distort markets by encouraging irrational allocations of capital.
The capital thrown at wind and solar will be more productively allocated to building new natural gas and nuclear baseload plants and ensuring existing coal plants stay up and running to keep America’s lights on.
The capital misallocated by legacy carmakers – like Ford and GM – to their foundering EV dreams must be reallocated to making cars American consumers can afford and actually desire to own.
With global markets creating rapidly rising demand for U.S. LNG, it’s time to “Build, Baby, Build” those needed new export facilities and the pipelines needed to feed the gas into them.
Those energy gains can’t be consolidated without driving into action the streamlined processes to issue the needed permits.
And then there are the mines. Regardless of how quickly their permits can be issued, America can’t have any of the pipelines, LNG facilities, power plants, AI datacenters, or transmission lines without the raw mineral materials that make them work.
America can no longer afford to be held hostage to supply chains for these materials dominated by China. That means more mines, and lots of them.
The President and his people have worked overtime throughout 2025 to ensure the executive branch’s side of this policy revolution is in place.
Now, Congress must act to enshrine it permanently in law.
Getting that done, consolidating the gains made in 2025 into action and statutes, will dominate the energy policy agenda throughout 2026. It’s all very predictable.
Top image: Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok
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Echoing Richard Greene.
The looming shortage of power was causing concern to grid managers and other observers like Kathryn Porter even before the data centres became a thing.
Now the pressure is building because wind-heavy grids are stuck in a “wind drought trap” where extra wind and solar capacity is useless because they yield nothing on windless nights.
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/defusing-the-wind-drought-trap
Coal power is the key because there are years of delay to build gas capacity, and it can be decades for nuclear in states with predatory regulators.
All the grids in the US are moving rapidly in the same direction with data centres proliferating and grid managers are becoming increasingly agitated. Apparently, they have not effectively shared their concerns with the general public and there is not enough electoral pressure on blue state lawmakers and RINOS to change course.
Get the voters into the act by campaign to promote wind drought awareness. Do a national “wind
literacy” program and encourage people to locate the dashboard for the local grid to find how much power wind and solar are contributing at breakfast and dinnertime. See how many cold meals they will enjoy if the heat depends on the intermittent providers.
https://rafechampion.substack.com/p/will-windpower-heat-your-breakfast
Hopefully you are not holding your breath that Greene will actually respond. Good luck with that.
I read all the Blackmon columns and he’s usually reliable, but this is just plain Trump cheerleading. Detached from reality.
2025 was a disaster for the US electric grid:
Record wind farm construction.
Record solar farm construction.
BEV plus PHEV sales probably set a new record too.
This is what would have happened if a Democrat was president.
I’m not blaming Trump because I think Ruinables and EVs peaked in 2025.
In early 2025, the percentage of Americans who feared global warming hit a new peak of 48%.
One small nuclear reactor (75 MW) is scheduled to be complete before the year 2030. That adds very little to the current nuclear power capacity of 97,500 MW
No large new coal power plants are not being built in the U.S.
Lead times for new gas turbines are currently huge, stretching from 3-4 years to 5-7 years or even longer (into 2030s) due to unprecedented demand from data centers, AI growth, and electrification.
Easy to predict that 2026 will be better than 2025 because a year couldn’t be much worse than 2025. I hope the US tide turns in 2026. But Europe is still lost in the Ruinables Dream World.
My climate and energy website, with over 1.33 million lifetime page views, is anti-wind, anti-solar, anti-batteries and anti-net zero.
https://honestclimatescience.blogspot.com/
Why do you think that there was record wind and solar construction? And EV sales? Apparently you don’t think. After Trump was reelected president and declared that the gravy train was going to end and so they accelerated purchase and construction. Near where I live a very large solar “farm” (it replaced what had been a real farm that for years grew winter wheat but must have gotten a too-big-to-refuse offer for the land) that is a mile long and bigger than 1/4 mile wide. It is in an area that frequently see hail storms which last year destroyed a smaller solar “farm” completely.
As to percentage of Americans who actually believe that burning fossil fuels is causing any warming that’s not a surprise. But given the legacy (aka left-wing) media constantly hype any major weather event is a sign of “climate change” then it is no surprise.
Richard, how can I subscribe to your blog?
Check out my books and The Energy Realists of Australia.
https://www.amazon.com.au/s?k=Rafe+Champion&i=stripbooks&crid=GZ66NWUYZ193&sprefix=rafe+champion%2Cstripbooks%2C262&ref=nb_sb_noss
https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/list-of-briefing-notes
And screw the NRDC EDF, Friends of the Earth, Greenpeace(Who fuels its two ships with Fossil Fuels)Sierra Club and the rest of those Keep it in the Ground Useful Idiots
This is all great news for the US economy as well as Europe and elsewhere that would import our LNG, reducing Russia’s interference in Europe. And reducing China’s influence in the US economy.