According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for each degree of global warming, the amount of water vapor in the air should increase by about 6-7%.
As with so many things the IPCC talks about, this small change is supposed to lead to calamity. That’s because increasing water vapor is supposed to lead to “intensification of the hydrological cycle,” in other words, floods, and droughts.
Demetris Koutsoyiannis, a hydrologist at the National Technical University of Athens, has taken it upon himself to undertake a major review of the scientific data to see what evidence there is for this actually happening in practice.
His findings, currently up for open peer review at the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,[i] make for uncomfortable reading for the IPCC and its fellow-travelers on the bandwagon of doom.
It seems, for example, that although relative humidity is supposed to stay constant under global warming, it is actually falling.
Dew points are supposed to be increasing, but mostly they are not; in particular, there appears to be little or no change in equatorial regions, where the largest share of evaporation of water from the oceans takes place.
If we’re not seeing change there, then increased flooding is off the agenda.
And Koutsoyiannis finds that the amount of water vapor in the air is increasing at roughly one-third of the IPCC’s predicted rate.
If the rate of water vapor increase really is so low, then by the time we hit the (in)famous two-degree target for global warming, we’ll still only have experienced a 4% increase, which as Koutsoyiannis points out is negligible given the normal variability of hydrological cycles.
Where are the deluges and floods going to come from?
It doesn’t end there either.
There are lots of other ways in which intensification of the hydrological cycle might show up.
You can measure the amount of water vapor in columns of the atmosphere. That should be increasing with global warming too, right? Koutsoyiannis finds no trend.
Average rainfall across the planet should increase too – the IPCC says by 1-3% per degree of global warming.
The problem with this claim is that it’s within the “noise” of normal variability anyway; no surprise then that Koutsoyiannis sees no meaningful trends in the data.
The limited data on evaporation are telling the same story (or lack of one) too.
What about extremes of rainfall? Koutsoyannis reviews a variety of measures: changes in daily maxima, days with rainfall over a threshold and so on, he looks on land and he looks at the sea.
And he draws a blank everywhere.
As well as being an eminent scientist, Koutosoyiannis also has a deep interest in the scientific knowledge and practice of the ancient world, and this has colored his view of the climate scare.
As he says in his conclusions, the small changes that are exciting climate scientists today would not even have been discussed by ancient engineers, who would have seen them as just noise in the ever-changing patterns of hydrological cycles.
Similarly, he points out that such small changes are of no interest to those making practical decisions about flood protection and water storage.
And he wonders whether, with the data refuting the climatologists’ predictions so clearly, it isn’t time that hydrologists shifted their attention away from prophecies of doom, and back onto making a real contribution to people’s lives.
You can see his point.
[i] https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/hess-2020-120/
Read more at GWPF
It is very common for the climate extremists to make claims with nothing to back them up. The mainstream media then promotes these claims as fact. When a good study comes along thoroughly discrediting the extremists claims such as the study by Demetris Koutsoyiannis, the media continues to promote the extremists claims as fact.
The floods we’ve seen lately result from stable jet stream patterns. It rains repeatedly over the same areas. How can you blame that on CO2?
Looks to me like their bandwagon and lost its wheels and the horses ran away
I think the consequence of increased evaporation from 2/3 of the Earth’s surface is to deliver the cooling of the SST by evaporation, and further by the increased albedo from the additional clouds formed, a powerful and negative feedback that increases exponentially with temperature to SVP, currently at around 150W/m^2. To suggest otherwise is total bollocks. How do they think the Earth has stayed in a narrow stable range through multiple extreme perturbations over 500 Million years? Its the oceans. Massive control that crushes any perturbation to date, the Earth isnot sitting on a knife edge waiting to fall off at the slightest push, like the trivial effect of the human species. Insignificant in effect on a planetary scale, natural controls are massively capable.
Even NASA says this in the well known diagram. This also the natural reliable control that ends the extreme 7Ka interglacial warmings of both periods. Obs. It dominates any surface warming effect of GHE variation, which is really only a gradient change using smart lagging. Really is time to stop talking rubbish about causes of change and the dominant power of natural stabilising effects.
Science!? Data!? You must be punished for revealing these truths.
You just need to believe. Believe in whatever you are told.