Scientists are now acknowledging the sharply declining trend in Arctic sea ice from the mid-1990s to the 2010s (-11.3% per decade), as well as a “negligible” or flat trend since 2012 (-0.4% per decade), are both “closely coupled” with natural decadal-scale variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and “enhanced summertime radiation balance associated with an anticyclonic atmospheric circulation pattern.” [emphasis, links added]
In other words, instead of a linear decline in Arctic sea ice coupled with rising greenhouse gas emissions, it is claimed that “approximately half” of the observed Arctic sea ice decline in the modern era can be attributed to internal variability.
The authors of this new study, published in Nature Communications, further suggest the flattened trend or “slowdown” in sea ice decline will likely persist for the next 10 to 15 years.
Consequently, alarmist predictions of an “ice-free” Arctic in the coming decades will have to be put on hold until after the 2030s.
Top photo by Jenny K. via Pexels
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