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New Study: No Linear Warming Along Northern Antarctic Peninsula Since 1980s

Glacier retreat patterns shift with natural cycles, not linear CO2 increases.

by Kenneth Richard
April 13, 2026, 8:43 AM
in Bipolar, News and Opinion, Science
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A
1

antarctic fjord penguins
The drivers of warming and glacier retreat in Antarctic climates are not aligned with linear increases in atmospheric CO2. [some emphasis, links added]

Scientists (Park et al., 2026) have assessed that over the last four decades, the patterns of air temperature, sea surface temperature, and glacial retreat near King George Island (just north of the northernmost tip of the Antarctic Peninsula) align with the negative to positive phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and natural ocean-atmosphere interconnections.

Phases of cooling and glacial advances are mixed with phases of warming and significant glacial retreat, but neither follows a linear rise nor trend in greenhouse gas emissions.

The scientists identify an overall decline in glacial retreat rates from the mid-1990s until 2015, when “cooler phases slowed retreat.”

The study “demonstrates how coupled fjord geometry-ocean-atmosphere interactions govern retreat behavior.”

Human activity governs neither warming nor glacier retreat.

Image Source: Park et al., 2026

Elephant Island is situated just 130 km northeast of King George Island. It is home to a large volume of penguins and seals.

A recent study (Atkinson et al., 2022) reported significant (approximately -0.75°C) surface cooling across Elephant Island (purple) since the 1990s, aligning with cooling along South Georgia, the Scotia Sea, and the overall West Antarctic Peninsula in recent decades.

Image Source: Atkinson et al., 2022

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Comments 1

  1. Richard Greene says:
    19 minutes ago

    “The drivers of warming and glacier retreat in Antarctic climates are not aligned with linear increases in atmospheric CO2” KR

    the antarctica peninsula,
    which is only 1% of antarctica,
    (1 percent is data mining)
    has has warmed since 1980,
    the claim in this study is false

    The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed
    at a rate of approximately
    0.18°C per decade from 1980

    yet another KR CO2 does nothing
    false clean

    there is a negative greenhouse effect
    over most of antarctica
    due to a permanent temperature inversion

    which is only a greenhouse gas
    warming characteristic

    antarctica has a very small amount of warming
    under several ice shelves and
    around the peninsula due to ocean heat
    partially from underseas volcanoes
    and also from ocean heat transport
    from the tropics down to the antarctica
    (Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC)

    Reply

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