Climate Change: Is There Anything It Can’t Do?

mosquitoSo, will global warming increase or decrease disease risk? The answer is Yes. The conventional wisdom about global warming and disease is that warming will cause more of it, even though it is curious to note that huge disparities in disease rates in tropical parts of the globe seem to stop at borders between rich and poor nations. Funny how that works. (And how oblivious the climatistas are to the obvious conclusion to be drawn.)

Anyway, just last year, for example, you could be treated to this headline about dengue fever:

Dengue outbreaks

But wait! The latest finding is that global warming may decrease dengue fever:

Warmer climate lower dengue

Here’s the journal article abstract from Epidemiology and Infection:

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change

C. R. WILLIAMS, G. MINCHAM, H. FADDY, E. VIENNET, S. A. RITCHIE, and D. HARLEY

Summary

Dengue is the world’s most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046–2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

What? You mean the science isn’t settled? That the matter may be complicated?

Read rest…

Trackback from your site.

Leave a comment (newest first):

Leave a comment

Loading Disqus Comments ...

No Trackbacks.