US Oil Production Largest In More Than 100 Years

EIA2014 was a record-breaking year for US oil production. Spurred by the shale revolution, US crude output increased by a record 1.2m barrels a day to 8.7m b/d last year, according to a report published by the Energy Information Administration on Monday. That is the largest volume increase since 1900, the year the agency began keeping records. —Financial Times, 30 March 2015

Ever since the oil price decline began in earnest back in July 2014, popular discourse has suggested US shale plays would be in deep trouble. However, assumptions about a wholesale decline in activity now appear to be exaggerated at best. Tom Morgan, Analyst and Corporate Counsel at Drillinginfo, says making assumptions based on headline data miss one crucial point – efficiency gains. “No one in the industry is pretending that a lower oil price doesn’t bite. Yet, technological progress over the last decade, especially in terms of horizontal drilling is reaping benefits when times are hard. Over the last three years, efficiency of shale explorers has increased by 25%; so in effect three years ago the profitability of $100 per barrel oil is the same profitability at $75 per barrel.” –Gaurav Sharma, Forbes, 30 March 2015

Global oil prices may stay low for the next 10 or 20 years, according to Stanford economist Frank Wolak. The primary reasons for continuing low prices include the slowing demand for oil in the industrialized world and ever-advancing technological change in the extraction and use of oil, wrote Wolak in a new policy brief for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. –Clifton B. Parker, Stanford University, 30 March 2015

Oil has been at the epicenter of the geopolitics of the Middle East for longer than the living memory of most people on earth today. Petroleum still powers 97 percent of air and ground miles. Every sensible forecast shows that the world’s staggering 33 billion barrel per year appetite for crude will be greater in the coming decades, not less. The U.S. now has the ability to position itself not only to influence but, in due course, to even dominate oil markets. Given the unraveling of the Middle East, if ever there were a propitious moment to reset American oil doctrine, it is now. –Mark P Mills, Forbes, 30 March 2015

Did you know that the Earth is getting greener, quite literally? Satellites are now confirming that the amount of green vegetation on the planet has been increasing for three decades. This will be news to those accustomed to alarming tales about deforestation, overdevelopment and ecosystem destruction. –Matt Ridley, The Wall Street Journal, 5 January 2013

The world’s vegetation has expanded, adding nearly 4 billion tonnes of carbon to plants above ground in the decade since 2003, thanks to tree-planting in China, forest regrowth in former Soviet states and more lush savannas due to higher rainfall. Louis Verchot, a research director at the Indonesia-based Center for International Forestry Research, said Liu’s findings were ‘by and large what we would expect in the warmer and wetter world that results from climate change’. –Mark Prigg, Daily Mail, 31 March 2015

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  • Avatar

    Gator

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    Somewhere, in one of David Hypocrisy’s four fossil fuel built homes, he and his wife are crying. Good.

    Dr. David Suzuki: [i]I do despair. My wife and I huddle at night and weep for our helplessness.[/i]

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    Susuki …What an actor . The CBC made this
    fruit fly scientist .
    Gator ,I doubt he is overly worried or crying at night about rising waters . How many houses has he had that are waterfront ? Gulf Islands ,Point Grey Vancouver ,and wasn’t there one in Australia ? No lake fronts ?

    What would the world population look like
    if everyone had five kids too .

    Hypocrite preachers .

    Reply

    • Avatar

      Gator

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      [i]David Suzuki’s performance on Q&A last night was extraordinary. I was knock-me-over amazed that he has not heard of UAH, GISS, HADcrut and RSS, and knew nothing of the pause in global surface temperatures that even the UK Met Office and IPCC lead author climate scientists like Hans von Storch are discussing.

      How afraid is Suzuki about man-made global warming? So afraid, it doesn’t occur to him to check the data, incredibly he doesn’t even know what the data is. Tony Jones had to rephrase the questions to explain them to Suzuki, who doesn’t even understand them.

      How much is his reputation as a scientist worth when he doesn’t even bother to check the evidence for a cause he stakes his reputation on?

      Three times in Q&A he admitted he didn’t know — he didn’t know there was a pause in warming for the last 15 years, he didn’t know how global temperatures are measured, and he didn’t know that cyclones were not increasing over the Great Barrier Reef. He wants politicians jailed for “denying the science”. “You bet!” he exclaims, but then admits he hasn’t thought that through either.

      The cartoon-like responses were incongruous. Should we go nuclear to reduce emissions? Suzuki tosses numbers, evidence, and cost-benefits down a deep well of ignorance: “It’s just crazy”. “What the hell is going on”. “You’ve got sunlight!” “Solar farms could be spread everywhere”. “There is plenty of sunlight beyond anything humanity needs”. The audience member who asked then pointed out we don’t have the batteries to cope with sunless cloudy days. Even Tony Jones asks how realistic solar is. At this first prod, Suzuki throws his hands up in the air, “I don’t know”.

      The man is emphatically an activist who might as well be innumerate. He is unburdened by data, evidence or logic. Why is the ABC giving him such a hallowed space, which is usually only given to PM’s?[/i]

      http://joannenova.com.au/2013/09/david-suzuki-bombs-on-qa-knows-nothing-about-the-climate/

      The Al Gore of the Great White North.

      Reply

  • Avatar

    GR82DRV

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    [i]”Oil has been at the epicenter of the geopolitics of the Middle East for longer than the living memory of most people on earth today. Petroleum still powers 97 percent of air and ground miles. Every sensible forecast shows that the world’s staggering 33 billion barrel per year appetite for crude will be greater in the coming decades, not less. The U.S. now has the ability to position itself not only to influence but, in due course, to even dominate oil markets. Given the unraveling of the Middle East, if ever there were a propitious moment to reset American oil doctrine, it is now. –Mark P Mills, Forbes, 30 March 2015″[/i]

    This is what’s being intentionally missed by the mainstream media in all this madcap, sky-is-falling, climate change push.

    Predictions that the United States would be out of domestic energy resources completely by 2010 and thereafter reliant on dwindling world oil have been turned upside-down. That, by the way was the left’s [i]last[/i] sky-is-falling prediction.

    We now stand in a position to cut loose from foreign energy dependence and strengthen our national security as never before, but the left is actively campaigning against this. Only a [i]really[/i] scary boogy man (that can’t even be defined), like global climate change change, can serve as the reason to capitulate power and influence to the failed philosophy of world Marxism.

    Reply

    • Avatar

      Gator

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      [b]History of ‘Peak Oil'[/b]

      http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html )

      [i]• 1857 — Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.

      • 1859, Aug. 25 — Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania

      • 1862 — First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.

      • 1862 — Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon.(Kovarik, 1997)

      • 1863 — John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.

      • 1879 — US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.

      • 1882 — Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain.With 25 million barrels per year output, “Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast,” Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).

      • 1901 — Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.

      • 1906 — Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried “not so much [about] cost as … supply.”

      • 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. “The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste…. Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight… and comfort and endurance, to avert what … will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation.”

      • 1920 — David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. “In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent.” (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).

      • 1925 — US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.

      • 1928 — US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book “We Fight for Oil” noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.

      • 1926 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.

      • 1930 — Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.

      • 1932 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.

      • 1944 — Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrels of oil remain.

      • 1950 — American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)

      • 1956 — M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.

      • 1966 – 1977 — 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: “These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.”)

      • 1973 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.

      • 1978 — Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).

      • 1979 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.

      • 1980 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

      • 1993 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

      • 2000 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.

      • 2005 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand

      • 2008 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand, global economies collapse when oil reaches over $140 USD/bbl.

      Oil reserves have declined from 95 million barrels in 1882, to well over a trillion barrels in 2011. We will probably run out in a few centuries at the rate we are consuming the oil. [/i]

      Reply

      • Avatar

        amirlach

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        The Chinese were drilling for salt, oil and gas for centuries. They made derricks from wood and bamboo, used crude cable tools.

        [img]http://csegrecorder.com/assets/images/articles/archive/2004-06-chinese-drilling-fig13.jpg[/img]

        A crew Trippin into the Hole! 😛

        [img]http://csegrecorder.com/assets/images/articles/archive/2004-06-chinese-drilling-fig04.jpg[/img]

        They must have switched to oil and gas production after the Peak Salt Crisis of 1649! 😀

        Reply

  • Avatar

    sonnyhill

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    When the Allies kicked the Nazi’s out of the African oil fields, the Luftwaffe still flew on synthetic gasoline made from coal. Humans are resourceful given incentive. Raise the price of fuel and fuel will exist, until there really is none left. What will last longer, demand for fossil fuels or fossil fuels?

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    So Gator if we run out of oil in a few centuries what oh what are we going to use
    to keep the planet from turning back into a giant ice ball again ?

    Thanks for the summary .It just confirms looney tune predictions by self interest groups have been spewing out for over 100 years .

    Can’t wait to see the current batch of scary global warming alarmists added to
    their own list of climate conmen .

    Reply

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