The Relationship Between Temperature and Human Health in China

Climate alarmists predict global warming will increase human death rates, and nary a heat wave occurs but what they are quick to blame any concurrent excess deaths on the high temperatures associated with it.

Much more deadly than hot weather, however, is cold weather; yet climate alarmists typically ignore the excess deaths that are caused by low temperatures, even though they are far more numerous than those caused by high temperatures.

Indeed, numerous studies detailing this fact — that extreme cold kills far more persons than extreme heat — can be found by perusing the many reviews of the topic we have posted in our Subject Index under the subheadings of Health Effects of Temperature: Hot vs Cold Weather. The present review details the latest work to confirm this fact, as reported by Wang et al. (2017) for 122 communities across mainland China.

Using daily non-accidental mortality and meteorological data for the period 1 January 2007 through 31 December 2012, the team of seven Chinese scientists used a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model to estimate the relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality in each of the communities they studied. Next, they pooled their data into one of five temperature zones from which they analyzed the temperature-mortality relationship at the regional and national level.

In discussing their findings, Wang et al. report that both high and low temperatures increase the risk of mortality, but that the risk is higher and lasts longer at the cold edge of the temperature spectrum (see Figure 1). Qualitatively, the relative risk of mortality due to cold was 1.63 versus 1.15 for heat.

An analysis of the minimum-mortality temperature (the point on the line in each of the plots in Figure 1 where the relative risk equals 1.0) also proved insightful. All of the regions except the north subtropics experienced a minimum-mortality temperature around the 75th percentile of local ambient temperature, suggesting that inhabitants in these regions are more accustomed (or adapted) to temperatures at the warmer end of the temperature spectrum in which they reside.

To further illustrate the far greater danger of extreme cold, the average relative risk of mortality due to extreme cold and heat for each of the five temperature regions are presented in Figure 2. As shown there, the relative risk due to cold is consistently larger than that due to heat.

In light of all the information presented, it would appear that a little global warming would prove to be a net benefit on human health.

Paper Reviewed
Wang, C., Zhang, Z., Zhou, M., Zhang, L., Yin, P., Ye, W. and Chen, Y. 2017. Nonlinear relationship between extreme temperature and mortality in different temperature zones: A systematic study of 122 communities across the mainland of China. Science of the Total Environment 586: 96-106.

Read more at CO2 Science

Comments (5)

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

    |

    But fewer people is what the eco-wackos want their so bent out of shape over Paul Ehrlich and his Population Bomb/Population Explosion hoax they real beleive were running out of everything and we must adopt china’s one child policy

  • Avatar

    David Lewis

    |

    In the late 1970’s I worked with one of the few who had been permitted to legally emigrate from China. This coworker’s father in China died as a result of a very cold weather. This fact that cold kills more than heat isn’t just a statistic, these are real people.

    More real people will die if they can’t afford to heat their homes due to the high cost of renewable energy.

    • Avatar

      rakooi

      |

      Science does not say THE COLD WILL END….the warming will turn normal changes into tumultuous changes.

      RENEWABLE ENERGY IS NOW LESS EXPENSIVE than Killer Coal !
      4 times as many folks are employed in Clean Dependable Energy than in Killer Coal.
      Climate Change directly causes 140,000 deaths.
      AMA: 1 Million new cases of Asthma per year from COAL just in the US….death rate 23 per 100,000 per year.
      Thousands die in coal mine disasters per year.


      1958
      The Legititmate Scientific Community, in 1958, gave a Research Study & Warning t President Eisenhower
      about the unrestrained & MASSIVE Dumping of TOXIC industrial waste gasses &
      chemicals into our atmosphere & the climate warming Changes it causes.
      Complete with tumultuous weather changes: Cold events, Heat waves, Droughts, Rising Sea levels, & Flooding Rain events!
      Source: AAAS
      (The American Association for the Advancement of Science)
      .
      1965
      The Scientific Community Delivered a detail Research report in 1965 to President Johnson about the massive,
      unrestrained Dumping of TOXIC industrial waste gases & chemicals into our atmosphere &
      Global Warming with Climate Changes threatening our populations and economies.
      Source: AAAS
      .
      Global Warming Science PROJECTED (Spot on, accurate) Changes likely over 50 yrs. into the future (to 2015)
      PROJECTED Climate changes:
      .
      1. AS PROJECTED:
      ALL Surface digital weather station measurements register RISING Global TEMPERATURES .
      Particularly during the last 20 years. 16 of the 17 hottest years have occured since 2000.
      .
      (2100+ (NASA NOAA) Ground Stations around the world)
      .
      (independent News/TV/Radio collected.
      Tens of millions of human measures / yr. from well over 30,000 private, independently owned & operated
      Digital Weather stations around the world.)

      ALL Satellite measurements show that the troposphere is warming…& verified by HUNREDS OF THOUSANDS OF
      digital weather balloon launches around the world.
      ALL Satellite measures of the stratosphere is cooling for 52 straight YEARS, as Projected by anthropogenic global warming
      & as projected spot-on accurately BASED ON GLOBAL WARMING THEORY & numerous computer models in over 2 dozen countries.
      .
      (Strotospheric Cooling “CANNOT” be explained by ANY NATURAL CYCLE !
      …If direct solar warming is responsible for Climate on earth,
      how can 1 atmospheric layer be warming while the layer closer to the sun, with a vastly larger surface area, is actually cooling???)
      .
      If Deniers/Skeptics are to be believed…the heat comes only from the sun.
      then the Stratosphere Is FIRST IN LINE to WARM from the sun…how could IT be cooling and the next atmospheric layer, the Troposphere, be warming ….? ?
      As projected by Global Warming Theory:
      Temperatures at the ocean surface & at various ocean depths show * warming as far down as 3000 meters (after thousands of years cooling)
      The additional fresh water from melting glaciers has slowed the ocean currents, cooling the N. Atlantic and altering weather for years to come.
      AS projected:
      Sea level rise gravitometric measurements of Greenland and Antarctica show net ice loss. HEADLINES: “….“The loss of ice from West Antarctica
      between 2009 and 2012 caused a dip in the gravity field over the region,”
      writes the ESA, whose GOCE satellite measured the change. Apparently, melting billions of tons of ice year after year has implications….”

      National Snow & Ice Data Center registered the ARCTIC AND ANTARCTICA set Satellite Historic Low Ice LEVELS…2016
      Anarctica melted so heavily a slushy lake covered 300,000 SQUARE MILES….hard to believe with an average temp. of 50 BELOW.
      As Propjected:
      Ice loss in the Arctic is dramatically accelerating setting low ice records 2015, 2016 etc.
      **continuing a 40-80 year trend ! Acceleration of melting glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, particularly within the last few years.
      China reports a stunning 18% loss of Ice Packs and Glacier Ice in recent years, Citing Accelerating Global warming & Black Carbon build up
      from Coal electric generation locally & around the world.
      Asian Mountain populations are in near panic as, today, they can see, year after year, their Snow Packs and Glaciers receding
      …which is their primary source of Water for drinking and irrigation.
      AS Projected:
      Poleward migration of species: (42% of ALL species have been dislocated)

      The Pine Beetle, for example, has been confined to much warmer southern latitudes for tens of thousands of years by Frigid Northern Climates.
      Today, That Beetle is found north of Fairbanks, Alaska !!
      MORE LODGE POLE PINE will be felled by the Beetle than FIRE & LOGGING combined.

      AS Projected:
      Increased hurricane & Storms (numbers &/or intensity) as expected from rising sea surface temperatures
      & expanded surface area, with expanding evaporation.
      (10 of the 15 Busiest Hurricane Seasons have occurred since 2000.)
      Accelerating decline of glaciers throughout the world
      Montana’s glacier national park had 150 in 1910 ((& in 1958 when I was there)) today, only 25 remain ! (soon to be 24)

      ( at a time when Skeptics & Deniers claim we are Plowing into a new ICE AGE, that we will be knee deep in it by 2030 ! ?)
      As Projected:
      The rise of the troposphere altitudes
      .
      As Projected:
      Rise in temperatures at greater depths in the permafrost
      As Expected:
      Rapid expansion of thermokarst lakes throughout parts of Siberia, Canada and Alaska
      .
      Russia reports that atmospheric temperatures in Siberia are rising at Twice the world wide average increase.
      Changes in ocean circulation as predicted by climate models, for example, with temperatures rising more quickly overland
      AS expected: Disintegration of permafrost coastlines in the arctic
      AS expected: Changes in the altitude of the stratosphere.
      ALSO, AS expected: An energy imbalance-the earth is receiving more energy than it emits (Hansen 2005) Verified.
      every monthly compilation of energy readings registers the same imbalance
      increasing energy staying within the earth’s atmosphere rather than escaping to space.
      (These findings are verified by detailed satellite data from 3 different nation’s satellites)
      .
      Poleward movement of the jet streams
      SOURCE: (Archer 2008)
      SOURCE: (Seidel 2007)
      SOURCE: (Fu 2006)
      The 270 Largest Fresh Water Lakes in the world are ALL rising in temperatures, TWICE as fast as the atmosphere.
      Algae Blooms and mass fish die-offs have doubled.
      .
      Flooding Rain Events have far more than doubled. (Regional Flooding Rains have tripled )
      .
      Deserts world wide are expanding.
      .
      The Number of droughts has more than doubled AND the Square Miles affected have more than doubled.
      .
      Heat Waves have more than Doubled.
      .
      The world is greening, primarily at higher altitudes on mountains and in far northern/Southern latitudes
      & far southern lattitudes as snow is replaced by vegitation. So let’s remember that Snow/Ice Reflects I.R. Heat back to space
      but vegitation absorbs MORE heat on Earth.

      "....Robin Bell, an Antarctic researcher at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Institute at Columbia University who was not involved in the study. “Who had heard of rain in Antarctica — it is a desert!....”

      " Our ability to analyze and adapt is what makes humans the dominant species on the planet.
      Spitting on that, is spitting on what makes us, us !

      .
      Fewer than a Dozen Coastal cities experience tidal flooding issues in the US in the 1950’s…”….already, more than 90 coastal communities in the United States are battling chronic flooding, meaning the kind of flooding that’s so unmanageable it prompts people to move away.
      That number is expected to roughly double to more than 170 communities in less than 20 years.
      .
      In the 70s,
      when scientists told us that CFCs used in aerosol sprays and refrigeration had punched a hole in the Ozone Layer
      & their continued use would render the planet uninhabitable to humans,
      we listened and A VERY CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN banned them.
      The hole is closing and we’re safe from a world poisoned by ultraviolet radiation.
      HUMANS AFFECT the CLIMATE of EARTH.
      HUMANS can correct CLIMATE CHANGES they have caused.

      https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/?

      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/vibrio-zika-west-nile-malaria-diseases-spreading-climate-change/?google_editors_picks=true
      .
      EVEN
      The Skeptic INVENTOR of the:”Global Warming Pause” “Global Warming Hiatus” (both of which he said, really mean slow down. Not a stop)
      .
      Skeptic Dr. Roy Spencer is NOW LECTURING “not to claim that there is no warming.”…”there clearly has been warming”

      http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures
      **
      “….a group of researchers found sea level rise was only about 1.1 millimeters per year before 1990,
      whereas in the period between 1993 through 2012 it was 3.1 millimeters per year. N
      ASA, TODAY, puts the rate of sea level rise at 3.4 millimeters per year….”

      • Avatar

        David Lewis

        |

        A common lie of the alarmist is that renewable energy is less expense. If it is, how come Germany has three times the electric rate of the US after going to partial renewable energy? How come my electric rates just went up 15% due to a state requirement to use more renewable energy?

        The earth has only warmed 1 degree C since the industrial revolution. Anyone claiming that could cause 140,000 deaths is fabricating their study to serve their political motivation. That is also true of many of your other claims.

        The climate model projections are not dead on and in fact the difference between real world data and the models becomes greater every year.

        Traditionally the satellite data did not support the climate change cause. I recently read an article by an alarmist saying that the “corrected data” agreed with the climate models. Just as with historical data, they are changing the data to fit the theory, rather than change the theory to fit the data. That is why climate change science is often called “junk science.”

        Much of what you say is down right wrong. The US is currently in a hurricane drought. Even the IPCC admits that extreme weather events are not increasing. An extensive 30 year study showed that places impacted by droughts move around, but the surface area impacted by droughts has remained fairly constant over 30 years.

      • Avatar

        Steve

        |

        Hmm…land can fall too, which makes the sea look like its rising…
        Antarctica has active volcanoes under it, which is why the ice melts…
        The IPCC models have all been shown to be inaccurate….
        The hockey stick doesnt have any MWP data included, otherwise it would show a natural cycle…..
        And, youre up past your school bedtime again….

Comments are closed