Swiss Physicist: CO2 Contributed Only 0.12°C To Global Temps Since 1850

A Swiss scientist known to have published hundreds of scientific papers in physics journals has authored a new scholarly paper that casts serious doubts on the effectiveness of CO2 as a greenhouse gas influencing Earth’s temperatures.

This paper has been added to a growing volume of peer-reviewed scientific papers that seriously question estimates of a high climate sensitivity to significant increases in CO2 concentrations.

60 Low (<1°C) CO2 Climate Sensitivity Papers

The link above contains a compilation of over 60 scientific papers with “extremely low” (numerically ranging from 0.02°C to <1°C) estimates of the climate’s sensitivity to a 100% increase in CO2 concentrations (i.e., an increase from 285 ppm to 570 ppm).

Below are some of the key user-friendly (non-technical) points from Dr. Reinhart’s paper entitled Infrared absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.  

A summarizing conclusion from the calculations may be that if we doubled today’s concentration (400 ppm) to 800 ppm, the consequent temperature response would be less than 1/4th of a degree Celsius.  Even with a ten-fold increase in today’s CO2 concentration (400 ppm) to 4,000 ppm, the resulting temperature change would amount to just 0.8°C.


Reinhart, 2017

Abstract

Over 200,000 discrete absorption lines of CO2 are used for the numerical calculations. If the absorbed energy is converted entirely into heat, we deliberately overestimate the heat retention capability of CO2. The thermal occupation statistics of the CO2 energy states play a key role in these calculations. The calculated heat retention is converted into a temperature increase, ∆T. Doubling the present CO2 concentration only results in ∆T [temperature increase of] < 0.24 K. At the present rate of CO2 concentration increase of 1.2% per year, it will take almost two hundred years to reach ten times the present concentration yielding ∆T < 0.80 K.

CO2 ‘Very Weak’, IPCC Assumptions ‘Violate Reality’

Based on all these facts, we conclude that CO2 is a very weak greenhouse gas. We emphasize that our simplifying assumptions are by no means trying to minimize the absorption potential of CO2. To the contrary, they lead to overestimating the limiting values. The assumption of a constant temperature and black body radiation definitely violates reality and even the principles of thermodynamics.

[W]e conclude that the temperature increases predicted by the IPCC AR5 lack robust scientific justification. The main problem is probably caused by the lack of considering the occupation probabilities of the energy levels.

Temperature Changes In Response To Large CO2 Concentrations (800 ppm – 4,000 ppm)

We have calculated ∆Fmax and ∆Tmax for four concentrations namely 400 ppm, 800 ppm, 2000 ppm and 4000 ppm. The results are listed in Table I. They can be quite accurately fitted with logarithmic concentration dependence.

A doubling [to 800 ppm] of the present level of CO2 [400 ppm] results in ∆T [temperature change] < 0.24 K.

The tenfold value of [the present CO2 concentration, or 4,000 ppm] yields ∆T [temperature change] < 0.80 K.

At pre-industrial times, we had cco2 = 285 ppm. The resulting temperature increase [since pre-industrial] according to Eq. (11) only amounts to ∆T < 0.12 K.

Solar Activity Correlates With Temperature, Non-Positive Feedbacks

Lu [and co-authors, 2013] establishes a correlation of ∆T with solar activity, cosmic rays and ozone reactions with fluorocarbons in the stratosphere. According to his result, CO2 only plays a minor role in the temperature evolution since pre-industrial times. Our calculation is compatible with his finding.

There remains the question of the existence of feedback. This effect is thought to amplify or attenuate a small temperature change. Such mechanisms are easy to imagine, but they are extremely difficult to quantify and to observe. Lindzen has tried to observe feedback by complicated correlation studies. He found a tendency to negative feedback that attenuates induced temperature changes because, in this perspective, the weak CO2 concentration effect is not magnified.

Conclusion:

Our results permit to conclude that CO2 is a very weak greenhouse gas and cannot be accepted as the main driver of climate change. The observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times is close to an order of magnitude higher than that attributable to CO2. We find that the increase of CO2 only might become dangerous if the concentrations are considerably greater than 4000 ppm. At present rates of increase, this would take more than 200 years. Therefore, demands for sequestering CO2 are unjustified and trading of CO2 certificates is an economic absurdity. The climate change must have a very different origin and the scientific community must look for causes of climate change that can be solidly based on physics and chemistry.

Read more at No Tricks Zone

Comments (4)

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

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    Always note that those who do most of the mindless yammering about Global Warming live in big fancu mansions(Gore,DiCaprio,Obama,David,Etc)fly all over the world in their private jets(Travolta has a 707)they drive big gas guzzling 11 mpg limos and DiCaprio has his his own private Yacht or he rents one from a middle east oil tycoon and he even flew from Paris to New York and back to Paris in his own private jet

  • Avatar

    G

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    0.12 degrees C change in 167 years… That much?

    • Avatar

      rakooi

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      Since the late 1800’s, humans has raised World Temps. 1.19C
      Natural Cycles averaged over millions of years about 1C in 7500 yrs.
      ..
      THAT nonsense about .12 C is bunk.

      CO2 with Water Vapor, Methane, CFC’s, Ozone, Nitrous oxides etc
      are measured hundreds of time per day, day-in and day-out,
      since the 1970’s by Satellite ! (since the 90’s by 2 satellites)
      … inhibiting the escape of EARTH EMITTED Infra Red Heat Radiation to the COLD of Space.
      …IF INFRA RED HEAT IS NOT ALLOWED TO ESCAPE
      IT MUST STAY IN THE ATMOSPHERE.

      THERE HAVE LITERALLY BEEN tens of thousands of experiments and observations and measurements PROVING THIS…since the mid 1800’s.

      “The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide & other gases was experimentally demonstrated & PROVED in the mid-19th century.”
      ..( these same fundamental experiments are Challenged & REPEATED Every year, in nearly every University , around the world !
      .
      …they have been put up for study, & critique !

      … for decades, no appreciable critique of the fundamental science of Global Warming
      …not in climatology,
      not in physics,
      not Earth Science,
      not physical science,
      not in Meteorology, etc.)
      .
      “….The line of Solid empirical evidence that humans are causing global warming is as follows
      .
      We’re raising CO2 levels and H2O & other gasses.
      Measured Today, at a couple hundred locations around the globe.”

      “Over the last 250 years, atmospheric CO2 levels have increased by OVER 110 parts per million.
      Currently, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing by around 15 gigatonnes every year.
      .
      ( Instead of 225-285PPM, as it has been for 1,000’s upon 1,000’s of years, today we are NOW   ‘OVER’   411PPM ! )
      Humans have never existed during a time when CO2 or Methane have been this HIGH.
      We have no IDEA what this experiment with HIGHER Atmospheric Gases may have on Humans or life itself.”

      Humans are NOW emitting more than 135 TIMES as much CO2 as ALL of the volcanoes on EARTH, each & every year, COMBINED ! )
      (The Unique Isotopic Signature proves that this CO2 INCREASE is from Human Activities & the Burning of Fossil Fuels)
      .
      CO2 traps heat
      .
      According to radiative physics & decades of laboratory measurements, increased CO2 in the atmosphere is expected to absorb more infrared radiation as it escapes back out to space.

      In 1970, NASA launched the IRIS satellite measuring infrared spectra.
      In 1996, the Japanese Space Agency launched the IMG satellite which recorded similar observations.
      Both sets of data were compared to discern any changes in outgoing I.R. energy radiation over the 26 year period .
      .
      GOOGLE: IRIS Satellite
      GOOGLE: Japanese Satellite IMG
      Google this SOURCE: (Harries 2001).
      these research studies have been peer reviewed
      (red team blue team),
      published in respected Science Journals & the science has been repeatedly been Replicated.
      .
      What they found was a drop in outgoing radiation at the wavelength bands that greenhouse gases such as CO2 and methane (CH4) absorb energy.
      .
      The reductions in outgoing radiation was consistent with Global Warming theoretical expectations.

      ** Thus these research studies & papers  found “direct experimental evidence for a significant increase in the Earth’s greenhouse effect” and Global Warming.

      (  If Infra Red HEAT Energy, does not escape, it is retained in our Earth System as rising temperatures, warming seas,melting Ice. )

      These results has been confirmed by subsequent Research papers using data from later satellites.
      .
      Google this SOURCE: (Griggs 2004)
      Google this SOURCE: ( Chen 2007 )

      THIS research has been Peer Reviewed (red team blue team)
      widely published and replicated repeatedly.

      • Avatar

        steve

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        You’re up past your school bedtime, rackoon….

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