Shale Oil For Centuries

shale gas plantShale gas plantThanks to the U.S.-led revolution in fracking, oil is abundant. It will be for decades, if not centuries, because there is shale everywhere in the world. And unlike the megaprojects that have dominated the oil industry over the past several decades, shale can be tapped by smaller companies with less capital. The oil market, as OPEC has learned to its sorrow, is now much more difficult to control. This is capitalist creative destruction. But nowadays it happens on Internet-time, so it’s also “disruptive innovation.” Fracking is to the global oil industry what Uber is to taxi medallion owners: great for consumers who enjoy the sudden abundance, deadly for incumbents whose business models were built on exploiting scarcity. Donald L. Luskin, The Wall Street Journal, 8 January 2016

Saudi Arabia is mulling the sale of shares in Aramco, believed to be the world’s most valuable company, as part of plans to repair its finances and open up its economy. The announcement was made by the country’s deputy crown prince as Saudi’s secretive, state-owned oil firm grapples with the effects of oil prices nearing 12-year lows. When asked if the country was planning a “Thatcherite revolution”, he replied “Most certainly”. —Sky News, 8 January 2016

There has never been a recession caused by low oil prices, so there is no playbook for how this one might evolve. It is critically dependent on how the global consumer responds. If the rigors of recession reduce demand for oil—as happens in a typical recession—then we’d have a vicious cycle in which further oil price declines would make the recession worse. But there is also cause for optimism. Low oil prices make the global consumer very resilient, which buffers the recession’s severity and duration. The best news is that, thanks to fracking, recessions caused by high oil prices are a thing of the past. Donald L. Luskin, The Wall Street Journal, 8 January 2016

Germany’s Green Party has launched a frontal attack on petrol and diesel engines: According to their plan, there will be no newly registered vehicles with combustion engines by 2036. Vehicles with environmentally harmful petrol or diesel engines are to disappear in the next 20 years from large parts of Germany’s roads. This climate policy has emerged from a plan that the parliamentary Green Party in the Bundestag intends to adopt at its meeting in Weimar. The aim of the eco-party is to ban fuels oil from the Germany after the coal phase-out. —Der Spiegel, 8 January 2016

In 2015, Americans bought a record 17.5 million passenger vehicles in the United States, of which116,548 — 0.67 percent — were either plug-in hybrids or all-electrics, according to insideevs.com. That was about 6,500 fewer than in 2014. Two-dollar-a-gallon gas isn’t doing anything to help the EV value proposition. But what about Tesla? Surely chief executive Elon Musk’s high-tech product, priced north of $100,000, will pave the way to all-electric nirvana, even if gas prices are, for now, heading down and interest rates are heading up. Tesla owes its survival to subsidies from taxpayers, who are usually less well-heeled than its plutocratic customers; this Silicon Valley start-up has gotten $4.9 billion in state and federal support over the past decade, according to a May 30 Los Angeles Times report. –Charles Lane, The Washington Post, 6 January 2016

Keystone XL was thrown under the bus of Obama’s egotistical climate “legacy,” as the man who single-handedly rolled back the oceans and healed the earth. The problem for Obama was that Keystone XL could have had no effect on climate, as the State Department pointed out numerous times. So his decision was purely political. Indeed TransCanada’s notice to submit a claim under NAFTA leads with the words of Obama’s own press secretary: “I would venture to say that there’s probably no infrastructure project in the history of the United States that’s been as politicized as this one.” The NAFTA arbitration, which would not begin for six months and could drag on for years, will be fascinating not just for its size and scope, but for the fact that it might lead to an airing of the state of climate science, which is looking more and more like that Soviet tractor every day. –Peter Foster, Financial Post, 8 January 2016

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  • Avatar

    Amber

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    Peter Foster is right and deserves credit for
    being one of the first in the mainstream media to challenge the preachy global warming con game .

    Reply

  • Avatar

    wazsah

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    It does appear that –
    as long as the global economy is weak –
    and as long as the Saudis choose to weaken Iran by pumping at a rate that keeps the oil price low –
    the concept of peak oil will remain in the future.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    wazsah
    I’d be willing to bet “peak oil” happens
    before the earth has a fever .

    If the globe was warming in any meaningful way we could save on fossil fuel use, so go global warming !

    Forget humans ,we can adapt to warming or cooling . What if the animal kingdom could vote any bets that they would prefer cooling over warming ?

    Minus- 43 F going up a titch to – 40 in Antarctica isn’t likely going to see Al Gore and David Suzuki build their next house’s there is it ? The Penguins would have a better chance of survival though .

    You see the scary global warming hoax is all about us . Nobody asked the critters did they ?

    OK critters would please tick one of the following boxes .

    Would you prefer :

    A. Another ice age (4 degrees F colder give or take to make most of the earth an ice ball ) …. or

    B. 4 degrees F warmer (like when plants and animals flourished on earth ).

    One other skill testing question ?

    If your answer is YES then please just stay silent .

    Do you believe humans are capable of adjusting the earth’s temperature to within 2 degrees by tweaking CO2 produced by humans ?

    Yeah …Thought so .

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Gator

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    Amber, let’s have a peek at peak oil over the years…

    [i][b]History of ‘Peak Oil'[/b]

    (http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html)

    • 1857 — Romania produces 2,000 barrels of oil, marking the beginning of the modern oil industry.

    • 1859, Aug. 25 — Edwin L. Drake strikes oil in Titusville, Pennsylvania

    • 1862 — First commercial oil production in Canada, also 1863 in Russia.

    • 1862 — Most widely used lamp fuel (camphene) taxed in US at aprox. $1 a gallon; kerosene taxed at 10 cent per gallon.(Kovarik, 1997)

    • 1863 — John D. Rockefeller starts the Excelsior Refinery in Cleveland, Ohio.

    • 1879 — US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages.

    • 1882 — Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain.With 25 million barrels per year output, “Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast,” Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124).

    • 1901 — Spindletop gusher in Texas floods US oil market.

    • 1906 — Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried “not so much [about] cost as … supply.”

    • 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. “The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste…. Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight… and comfort and endurance, to avert what … will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation.”

    • 1920 — David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. “In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent.” (Pratt, p. 125. Emphasis added).

    • 1925 — US Commerce Dept. says that while U.S. oil production doubled between 1914 and 1921, it did not kept pace with fuel demand as the number of cars increased.

    • 1928 — US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book “We Fight for Oil” noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said.

    • 1926 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain.

    • 1930 — Some 25 million American cars are on the road, up from 3 million in 1918.

    • 1932 — Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain.

    • 1944 — Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrels of oil remain.

    • 1950 — American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. (See Jean Laherre, Forecast of oil and gas supply)

    • 1956 — M.King Hubbard predicts peak in US oil production by 1970.

    • 1966 – 1977 — 19 billion barrels added to US reserves, most of which was from fields discovered before 1966. (As M.A. Adelman notes: “These fields were no gift of nature. They were a growth of knowledge, paid for by heavy investment.”)

    • 1973 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.

    • 1978 — Petroleos de Venezuela announces estimated unconventional oil reserve figure for Orinoco heavy oil belt at between three and four trillion barrels. (More recent public estimates are in the one trillion range).

    • 1979 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions due to Middle Eastern politics.

    • 1980 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 648 billion barrels

    • 1993 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 999 billion barrels

    • 2000 — Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels.

    • 2005 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand

    • 2008 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand, global economies collapse when oil reaches over $140 USD/bbl.[/i]

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    Precisely Gator . I find even if people are willing to consider the earth doesn’t have a fever or are not die hard believers in the church of global warming it doesn’t take long before their real fear and concern is revealed as the world’s population .

    As counterintuitive as it may seem and as has been covered on this site, when people have access to electricity ,clean water and good health care the environment is better off .

    The scary global industry would like to keep people poor so they can impose their Marxist agenda and return them to cave dwellers . Poor people beholding to government have far more serious issues than worrying if their cow dung stove might be heating the planet in some immeasurable way .

    Gator I’m not saying anything you haven’t articulated hundreds of time over the years
    but the global warming industry is a net holding greedy self serving business interest and real concerns beyond the fluffed up global warming fear propaganda .

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Me

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    • 2008 — Oil price spike; supply restrictions and heavy new demand, global economies collapse when oil reaches over $140 USD/bbl.

    Exactly, and who was responsible for that? You know they waited and sat on it until they saw their chance to screw everyone over, just like they did in the 70’s

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Me

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    And part of the problem is our own governments, believing the hype of peak oil and baseing our budget economies on oil prices that is where now. They did the same in the 70’s and did our governments learn from it, nope! now we are in a worse situation than the last time. Will our governments do anything about it, Nope, they are too stunned and believe the bullshit they are told from the likest NGO types and the leftards like always.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Me

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    So much fot the warmist theory of big oil being subsubsides by the government when in face it was the other way around, what a shock? Eh? All their social programs are now in jepardy because of thewir own doing, well not really, not just yet. They want to tax the crap out of what ever they can to make up for it? Really sounds like the theme of doing more with less. You know where they want you to pay more and get less while they get more and what is they do again? Yeah protest! Sams old same old until there is nothing, and then who will they blame? everyone but themselves because others didn’t do enough to give them their freebees.

    Reply

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