Sea Level Rise: Just the Facts

coastThe three most mentioned evils of rising CO2 are Rising Temperatures, Declining Sea Ice and Rising Sea Levels. Plateaus presently appearing in the first two have been discussed a lot here and elsewhere. This post gives what you need to know about Sea Level alarms.

Sea level rise (according to NASA)

Global sea level rose about 17 centimeters (6.7 inches) in the last century. The rate in the last decade, however, is nearly double that of the last century.

Dave Burton takes us underneath the hype and exposes the facts.Below is his post originally at Tom Fuller’s website. David Burton puts it all in perspective from his location on the coast of North Carolina.Much more info on sea levels is available at Dave’s own website linked below.

Sea-level rise is not accelerating, and has not accelerated since the 1920s.

There are about sixty good-quality, 100+ year records of sea-level around the world, and they all show the same thing: there has been no statistically significant acceleration (increase) in the rate of sea-level rise in the last 85 years or more. That means anthropogenic CO2 emissions do not measurably affect sea-level rise, and predictions of wildly accelerated sea-level rise are based on superstition, not science.

Here are two very high quality sea-level measurement records, one from the Pacific and one from the Atlantic:

Sydney 2015

Wismar 2015

With atmospheric CO2 at 0.040% by volume, globally averaged sea-level rise at the coasts is just under +1.5 mm/year.

When atmospheric CO2 was at 0.031% by volume, globally averaged sea-level rise at the coasts was just under +1.5 mm/year.

The difference is that climate alarmists think the current +1.5 mm/year is catastrophic and caused by human release of CO2, and the +1.5 mm/year 85 years ago was natural and inconsequential.

However, the similarity between the two numbers — the catastrophic 1.5 mm/yr and the inconsequential 1.5 mm/yr — has confused even some liberals into backing away from the One True Climate Faith. Even President Obama’s former Undersecretary for Science, Steven Koonin, has written that:

“Even though the human influence on climate was much smaller in the past, the models do not account for the fact that the rate of global sea-level rise 70 years ago was as large as what we observe today.”

Sea-level didn’t actually rise 3.39 mm last year, at the coasts.

That 3.39 mm number is from satellite altimetry measurements of the open ocean, inflated by the addition of model-derived GIA estimates. It has little relation to anything that matters.

Most fundamentally, satellite altimeters measure the wrong thing. Their measurements are distorted by “sea-level rise” caused by thermal expansion when the upper layer of the ocean warms. But that is a strictly local effect, which doesn’t affect the quantity of water in the oceans, and doesn’t affect sea-level elsewhere (e.g., at the coasts).

Sea-level rise only matters at the coasts, but satellite altimeters are incapable of measuring sea-level at the coasts. Tide gauges measure sea-level at the coasts, where it matters, and their data is of much higher quality.
The best tide-gauge records of sea-level measurements are nearly ten times as long as the combined satellite measurement record, and twenty times as long as any single satellite measurement record, and the tide-gauge records are trustworthy.

The satellite measurements of sea-level are not. They are subject to a long list of potential distortions, and vary considerably from one satellite to another.

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  • Avatar

    David Lewis

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    A fourth major evil of higher CO2 concentrations put forth by the alarmists is ocean acidification. We need to keep this in mind in addition to rising temperatures, declining sea ice and rising sea levels. Of course, this is also a fraud with them picking 1988, the year that the oceans were at an almost 100 year low for being acidic as their base line, and ignoring 1920 when the oceans were more acid than they are now.

    Like extreme weather events which are not increasing, and the warming of the earth which is in an 18+ year pause, the alarmists are not going to let sea level rise go. I just read an article on Yahoo stating that the sea level is rising faster and will reach disastrous levels. The article had as much text devoted to the need to reduce CO2 emissions as it did for its alarmist predictions. It was nothing more than a political advertisement.

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    Darn I was hoping for rising sea levels . How high could they go if all the ice melted ? Then wouldn’t we get some new land too ? The fish win and we can get at all that oil and gas easy .
    Maybe that is why Russia wants to claim the North . They gave away Alaska for the price of an Al Gore house now want a big piece back .

    It all makes sense now .

    We all know the Arctic could be ice free by …
    now .

  • Avatar

    David Lewis

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    Amber,

    Every web site I went to gave the same value if all the ice melted. The sea level would rise 216 feet. Since they all have the same number I suspect they all copied the value from one source.

    I have been reading about this fraud almost since the beginning and 216 feet is higher than past predictions. I suspect who ever came up with this figure used political motivation as one input to his calculations.

    If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet slides into the ocean the sea level rise would be 16 feet. The ice sheet is moving and the data that we have so far indicates that there is volcanic activity under it. All predictions say if it goes into the sea it will happen slowly and not for 100 to 200 years. Yet, it may happen and the reason will not be climate change.

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    Thank you David , Al Gore and David Suzuki
    houses are safe . Whew .

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