Paper: Scientists Still Can’t Explain The ‘Grand Hiatus’ In Global Warming

Climate protesters desecrate memorials set for victims of Paris attacks.Climate protesters desecrate memorials set up for victims of Paris attacks as police try to push activists back.Scientists are not only having trouble explaining why global surface temperatures did not warm for 15 years in the 21st century, they still have not adequately explained why there was an even longer 30-year “grand hiatus” in global warming during the mid-20th century.

“The climate models making dire predictions of warming in the 21st century are the same models that predicted too much warming in the early 21st century, and can’t explain the warming from 1910-1945 or the mid-century grand hiatus,” Dr. Judith Curry writes in a Wednesday op-ed published in The Financial Post.

The so-called “grand hiatus” was a period from 1945 to 1975 where the world stopped warming, and even cooled slightly, despite carbon dioxide emissions rapidly rising. Scientists have thus far been unable to explain why there was no warming even though global warming theory predicts there would have been warming.

“The mid-century period of slight cooling from 1945 to 1975 – referred to as the “grand hiatus” – also has not been satisfactorily explained,” Curry writes. Curry is a climatologist at Georgia Tech University. She has published more than 130 peer-reviewed papers on the climate.

Climate scientists claim carbon dioxide emissions are driving the global warming trend since 1950, but they have trouble explaining warming that occurred early in the 20th century. Nearly half of the 20th century warming trend occurred from 1910 to 1945, but CO2 emissions didn’t increase enough to explain most of the warming.

[dcquiz] “In fact, the period 1910-1945 comprises over 40 per cent of the warming since 1900, but is associated with only 10 per cent of the carbon dioxide increase since 1900,” Curry writes. “Clearly, human emissions of greenhouse gases played little role in causing this early warming.”

“If the warming since 1950 was caused by humans, what caused the warming during the period 1910-1945?” Curry asks.

Curry also notes there’s evidence the Earth has been warming for the past 200 years — a period that began before human carbon dioxide emissions would have been a factor.

Like today’s 15-year “hiatus,” (the “hiatus” grows to 21 years when looking at satellite temperature data for the lower atmosphere) scientists have tried to explain the “grand hiatus” away by adjusting it out of the data to correct for “biases” in thermometers that may have caused the world to appear warmer than it was.

The highly-controversial Climategate emails leaked to the public in 2009 include a conversation between a U.S. and U.K. scientist on “correcting [sea surface temperatures] to partly explain the 1940s warming blip.”

Ironically, U.S. government scientists claimed to eliminate the 15-year “hiatus” during the 21st century by adjusting sea surface temperatures upwards — a move that doubled the warming trend during that time.

What’s unclear, however, is if these thermometer data “adjustments” will stand the test of time and continue to be validated by the scientific community. It’s especially unclear given the huge uncertainties looming over climate models and the accuracy of the global temperature record.

“The politically driven push to manufacture a premature consensus on human-caused climate change has resulted in the relative neglect of natural climate variability,” Curry writes. “Until we have a better understanding and predictive capability of natural climate variability, we don’t have a strong basis for predicting climate change in the decades or century to come.”

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  • Avatar

    Amber

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    NOAA took care of the Grand Hiatus .
    What fudge can we expect in 2016 ? More of the “warmest year ” BS ? They have done a fine job of withholding their information in 2015 ? What do they have to hid ? More science fiction ?

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    The problem for the MSM is the liberal left
    perspective is easily available all over the internet so they can’t compete in that space . Copying as they do ensures their business failure . The media Editors left wing agenda is just too common , because it is belief based ,so nothing actually has to be true .
    The earth has a fever , the Arctic is to be ice free ,children won’t know what snow is etc etc .

  • Avatar

    JayPee

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    On January 27th, Rush Limbaugh will declare Al Gore ( the inventor of the internet and the algorithm ) to be a LIAR.

    Listen to Rush on January 27th. I can hardly wait. It will really be something.

  • Avatar

    Dennis Nilsson

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    Humans experienced at least one rapid warming of the planet at the end of the Ice Age 10,000 to 20,000 years ago. The landscape in Europe then was completely different than what it is now, with large herds of reindeer, horses and bison roaming through Germany and large parts of Western Europe.

    When the glaciers began to melt, people had to come to terms relatively suddenly with dramatic environmental change.

    The settling of Europe is the best proof that the climate change cultures braved environmental change by completely readapting their technology, art and lifestyle.

    Climate Change Clues From The Ice Age – Magdaleniansteppe hunters
    http://international.sueddeutsche.de/post/102601306850/climate-change-clues-from-the-ice-age

  • Avatar

    GR82DRV

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    [quote name=”Dennis Nilsson”]Humans experienced at least one rapid warming of the planet at the end of the Ice Age 10,000 to 20,000 years ago. The landscape in Europe then was completely different than what it is now, with large herds of reindeer, horses and bison roaming through Germany and large parts of Western Europe.

    When the glaciers began to melt, people had to come to terms relatively suddenly with dramatic environmental change. [/quote]
    And you don’t have to travel to Europe to see firsthand evidence of the last recent ice age. I live in a rural area of Wisconsin with rolling moraines and glacial kettles. Over the years farmers and homesteaders have heaped up great rock fence lines as they cleared their fields of the debris of the last big melt.

    The irony that I love best is that several of my neighbors are professors at the local state university who are outspoken advocates of the entire climate change agenda. I assume that every time they strike a rock as they sink a fence post, they are reminded of the last ice age melt, and have to find some way to square the facts and science with their own leftist politics…

  • Avatar

    brian stratford

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    [quote name=”GR82DRV”][quote name=”Dennis Nilsson”]Humans experienced at least one rapid warming of the planet at the end of the Ice Age 10,000 to 20,000 years ago. The landscape in Europe then was completely different than what it is now, with large herds of reindeer, horses and bison roaming through Germany and large parts of Western Europe.

    When the glaciers began to melt, people had to come to terms relatively suddenly with dramatic environmental change. [/quote]
    And you don’t have to travel to Europe to see firsthand evidence of the last recent ice age. I live in a rural area of Wisconsin with rolling moraines and glacial kettles. Over the years farmers and homesteaders have heaped up great rock fence lines as they cleared their fields of the debris of the last big melt.

    The irony that I love best is that several of my neighbors are professors at the local state university who are outspoken advocates of the entire climate change agenda. I assume that every time they strike a rock as they sink a fence post, they are reminded of the last ice age melt, and have to find some way to square the facts and science with their own leftist politics…[/quote] If you do some leg work you will see there were no ice ages but there were great floods. Read velikofskys books.

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