Paper: Droughts, Heat Waves Are Not Getting Worse Like Alarmists Predicted

droughtClimate scientists and environmentalists have claimed for years droughts and heatwaves were getting worse because of man-made global warming, but those predictions have not come true, according to a new study.

“Evidence that droughts have become more prevalent on a global scale is equally hard to come by,” Andrew Montford, a British author and global warming skeptic, wrote in a new report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

Montford’s report debunks many claims advanced by activists that droughts and heatwaves were getting worse, citing examples of alarmism playing out across the world and costing taxpayers billions of dollars.

Ultimately, droughts and heatwaves have not gotten worse globally, according to Montford, and even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the United Nations’ climate bureaucracy, has backed off alarmist claims of worsening weather.

The IPCC, which is regarded by many scientists and activists as the world’s foremost authority on global warming, reported in 2007 that droughts were more common due to human-driven warming. But in 2013, the IPCC changed its tone when it said “[c]onfidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and geographical inconsistencies in the trends.”

The IPCC was only able to show increases in drought in a few regions, while other regions showed a marked decrease in droughts.

“Based on updated studies, [the IPCC’s 2007] conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated,” the IPCC admitted in 2013. “However, this masks important regional changes: the frequency and intensity of drought have likely increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and likely decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950.”

Interestingly enough, Australian politicians were motivated by alarmist claims from the IPCC and environmentalists to invest billions of dollars in desalination plants when the country was struck by a particularly harsh drought a few years ago. The country is now stuck with paying for nearly $4 billion in mothballed water infrastructure.

Those massive desalination projects will cost Queensland, Australia taxpayers $150 million in interest payments and $33 million in maintenance costs.

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    David Lewis


    Unfortunately I don’t have a link to the article but I once read an excellent study of droughts on earth over a 30 year period. The study looked at the entire earth during that period. The conclusion was that the percentage of the earth under drought conditions was constant, not changing over time. What did change is which areas were under drought as the condition moved from one place to another.

    If you are a climate change alarmist or major media organization, when drought hits your area climate change is going to be blamed just as it is blamed for everything that is bad. However, this is not true.


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