NOAA’s ‘Common Core’ Climate Science: Breaking The Global Warming Pause

chartOne wonders if the massive temperature dataset adjustment performed by NOAA during 2015 was a direct result of ‘pause embarrassment.’

The global warming ‘pause’ (aka the ‘hiatus’) has been persistent, lasting well past a decade. It’s been widely written about and extensively researched and opined about.

The extended ‘pause’ appears to have finally rattled the scientists at NOAA. They seemingly chose to robustly adjust thousands of past monthly temperature observations to make sure the embarrassing pause would be no longer.

The adjacent chart depicts the global annual temperature anomalies computed from the monthly NOAA dataset reported in 2014 (orange columns); and the red columns represent the new annual anomalies after NOAA’s massive 2015 revisions.

By slightly adjusting down the past reported temperatures for years 2000-2003, and then by adjusting up years 2005-2014, NOAA was able to almost double the warming trend (i.e. slope of linear trend-line) for the 15 years ending in 2014.

To put the NOAA adjustments in scientific perspective, the chart also includes the satellite reported annual temperature anomalies for the same periods. Note for the satellite columns that only 3 of the 15 years (2012, 2013 and 2014) had minor adjustments of 0.01 each. As a result, the satellite temperature trend-lines remain flat for both 2014 and 2015.

One can assume that the RSS scientists avoided the temptation to massively adjust the satellite temperature dataset just to achieve desired political/activist objectives; thus, the ‘pause’ in the lower atmosphere continues and empirical science was not tarnished.

Unfortunately, NOAA has succumbed, allowing the bureaucracy to put the political cart before the scientific horse – the AGW hypothesis clearly predicts that the lower atmosphere has to warm first and at a faster pace than surface temperatures. The empirical evidence of the pause has not supported the prediction of a severely warming atmosphere for almost two decades now.

At this point in time, the satellite empirical evidence is significantly more trustworthy as it does not suffer from the constant monthly historical revisions that both NOAA and NASA perform on their respective temperature datasets.

Notes: Calendar year (annual) anomalies were computed using Excel from the RSS satellite 2015 year-end monthly dataset and NOAA’s 2015 year-end monthly dataset.

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Comments (7)

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    When federal documents are NOAASIZED
    they tamper with the property of the citizens who paid for it . It is absurd that NOAA
    tampers with records and then peddles it as if it credible warmest year crap covering a period of less than 70 years at best .

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  • Avatar

    Mike Haseler

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    Like an ice-berg the corruption we can see is only a very small fraction of the total corruption. There are many reasons to believe the temperature trend is lower than the corrupt figure given by those like NOAA.
    1. The data is massively adjusted (equivalent to all the warming since 1940)
    2. The stations just happen to have been located conveniently on the edge of urban areas – the areas that were mist subject to changes in the 20th century as urban areas increased.
    3. There is proven poor siting (which causes additional warming to rural). The problem here is that they turn a nod and a wink to poor sites that help increase the warming trend where a quality organisation would have dealt with them.
    4. Then there is the multiple instances of site specific tampering with data – which looks like individuals changing sites to cause additional warming to everything above.
    5. Then there is the oft change in methodologies to select those that show the highest warming.
    6. Then there is the way they intentionally remove sites with a cooling trend from the data (possibly as part of 5).
    7. There is the fact the temperatures are far from global with e.g. most of central S.America and Africa being missed out.
    8. Then there is the fraudulent misuse of ocean temperature data (changing good data without a warming trend to fit bad data with a warming trend).

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  • Avatar

    Your Future

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    Cooling the past & warming the present.

    The fraud becomes ever more transparent as reality ever further diverges from political models.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    NOAA refusal to promptly and thoroughly reply to USA lawmaker requests is revealing to what extent the bureaucracy holds elected people in contempt . How any of their senior people still have jobs says a lot about how neutered elected officials are .

    Reply

  • Avatar

    David Lewis

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    Assuming we do not enter another period of warming, what are the political activists masquerading as scientists going to do? Are they going to continue to further adjust the early part of this century to be even cooler and the more recent years to be even warmer? It will get to the point when even they realize their lies are not believable.

    Since climate change is a religion they probably have faith that the warming will return. After all, how could all those UN climate models be wrong?

    We may actually have started a cooling trend. Think about it. If El Nino typically causes warming and we have had no real warming, the El Nino might be masking cooling. When the next El Nina hits, which causes cooling, that will really give the alarmists some difficult data to adjust, especially if we have El Nina and a cooling trend at the same time.

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  • Avatar

    amirlach

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    David! They are already having to readjust temperatures downwards that they first “adjusted” upwards. All this to keep an upwards trending line.

    [img]http://bishophill.squarespace.com/display/ShowImage?imageUrl=/storage/Adjustocene_scr.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1454164107256[/img]

    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2016/1/30/new-era-josh-360.html

    Reply

  • Avatar

    amirlach

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    “Thanks to Robert B over at WUWT who thought up a great name for the era of climate science we are currently enduring –

    The Adjustocene, where no one will ever know what the real temperature is.”

    Reply

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