In stunning fashion, during the last seven months, a series of research studies have proven that “Natural Variability” trumps human induced Climate Change.
This revelation has rocked the consensus scientific community and forced changes in many cornerstone climate science principles including the most coveted principle…“climate and climate-related events are exclusively driven by atmospheric forces.”
The new research shows that varying natural emissions, mostly geological in origin, can completely mask the effect of man-made atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. For those advocating the theory of climate change / global warming, this is a huge setback scientifically and politically. However, that is only part of the story because natural variability also plays a dominant role in driving worldwide ocean temperature trends and the development of Polar ice caps.
This article will discuss the three most significant examples demonstrating how varying natural forces directly affect Earth’s climate and climate-related events: the 25-year global warming “hiatus”, the 37-year increase of Antarctica’s Polar Ice Cap, and generation of all El Niños.
Example 1) The “hiatus”…how land-based volcanic eruptions directly affect worldwide atmospheric temperatures and sea levels for extended time periods. Just-released research confirms that the volume of sulfur and moisture-laden ash emitted from the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption has had a much longer lasting and stronger effect on worldwide atmospheric temperatures than previously imagined (see here and quote below). This research conclusion has in the vernacular opened “Pandora’s Box” for several reasons.
“The cataclysmic 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines masked the full impact of greenhouse gases on accelerating sea level rise, according to a new study.” https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160826101522.htm
First, it is strong confirmation that the widely debated 25-year global warming hiatus is, in fact, real. Controversy concerning the existence of the Hiatus began in June of 2015 when a small but influential group of climate scientists and climate organizations, most notably the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), contended the hiatus never happened. As proof, these folks offered up their “adjusted” atmospheric temperature dataset, which effectively whipped out the hiatus.
Global warming hiatus is real
The validity of the temperature adjusting process was the focus of the intense argument. The just-released Mount Pinatubo-based research study has once and for all settled this entire argument because it is clearly a more reliable analysis of the hiatus. Why, because it accurately fits a wide variety of data: mid-level satellite data, unadjusted, lower level atmospheric temperature data, and numerous previous hiatus research studies. It can now be confidently stated that NOAA’s adjusted dataset is incorrect and that the warming hiatus is real. Furthermore, the very modest rise in sea level during the last 25 years has also been influenced by natural variability.
Second, the primary conclusion of the Mount Pinatubo-based research study, that geological emissions from one significant land volcanic eruption can have a measurable effect on Earth’s climate, clears the path to study the natural variability effect of all volcanic eruptions. This effort has already begun as per research by the Massachusetts Institute Technology’s (MIT). This groundbreaking research shows that large-to-moderate-sized volcanic eruptions and ongoing / daily non-eruptive volcanic emissions do in fact have a tangible effect on Earth’s climate (see here).
Example 2) The increasing Antarctic Polar Ice Cap….how the 35-year increase in the Antarctic Polar Ice Cap extent is the related to ocean currents that are driven by geologically shaped seafloor configurations. In July of this year, research by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showed that natural variability and not man-made atmospheric global warming has driven the 35-year increase of the Antarctic Polar Ice Cap (see here). Other research as per the quote below proves that unusual seafloor geometries (ridges and canyons) emplaced by powerful geological forces are the primary driver of the 35-year increase of Antarctic Polar Ice cap. When also considering that very convincing evidence indicates that local melting of a few West Antarctic glaciers is the result of geologically induced geothermal heat flow (see here), it becomes clear that natural variability plays a significant role in Antarctic climate and climate-related events.
“The study also found that the Southern Ocean Circumpolar Current, which helps determine the sea-ice extent, is steered by submerged ridges and canyons along the edge of the Antarctic continental shelf, rather than by global warming or other climatic conditions.” https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31052016/why-antarctica-sea-ice-level-growing-while-arctic-glaciers-melts-climate-change-global-warming
Example 3) El Niños…how unknown, naturally varying forces generate western Pacific Ocean Warm Blobs. Recent research by many groups has proven that all El Niños and La Niñas are driven by “unknown” natural forces and not man-made atmospheric global warming / climate change (see here, see here , and quote below)
“El Niño is a complex and naturally occurring weather pattern that results when ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator vary from the norm.”
It is here contended that these so-called unknown natural forces are in fact massive pulses of chemically charged and super-heated seawater from giant deep ocean geologically related circulating systems (see here). The 1998 and 2016 El Niños are thought to be the most significant climate events of the last 50 years. This is a powerful confirmation that deep ocean geological forces play a major in driving Earth’ s climate and climate-related events.
In summary, it is now proven that naturally varying geological forces strongly influence our atmosphere, polar ice caps, and deep oceans. When active, these forces have the power to mask or completely override the effect of manmade atmospheric methane and CO2 emissions. This is a major step forward for the Plate Climatology Theory which states that periods of active Earth tectonics and volcanism can be correlated to periods of active climate change and climate-related events.
James Edward Kamis is a Geologist and AAPG member of 42 years with a B.S. and M.S. in geology who has always been fascinated by the connection between Geology and Climate. More than 11 years of research / observation have convinced him that the Earth’s Heat Flow Engine, which drives the outer crustal plates, is also an important driver of the Earth’s climate. The Plate Climatology Theory (plateclimatology.com) was recently presented at the annual 2016 American Metrological Society Conference in New Orleans, LA. (see here)