Word is coming out of Washington that President Trump has finally made the decision to exit the Paris Agreement. There have already been various stories about the apocalypse waiting around the corner if that happens, not least from so-called scientists who should know better, eg:
But just what difference will it make to global emissions?
Obama promised to cut GHG emissions by 26% from 2005 levels of 6.2 GtCO2e, in his INDC at Paris. Yet between 2005 and 2012 (the last year figures are available from UNFCCC) emissions had already fallen by 11%. Most of this occurred shortly after the financial crash.
Provisional data suggests that emissions have flattened since 2012.
Therefore, if the US keeps to its target, emissions would need to drop by about another 0.9 GtCOe.
But what about global emissions?
Even the UNFCCC admitted that the Paris Agreement would mean that these would rise from 49 Gt in 2010, to 55 Gt in 2030, a rise of 6 Gt.
Therefore, if the US does not cut emissions any further, worldwide emissions will rise by 6.9 Gt, instead of 6.0 Gt.
If climate scientists honestly believe that the US exiting from Paris will make so much difference, perhaps they ought all to get on a (slow) boat to China and ask them why they are not cutting their emissions.
As we all know, none of this has anything at all with climate. The real concern amongst corrupt scientists, rent seeking renewable scamsters and wealth redistributors is that the money will dry up.
Take away the US, and the whole house of cards will soon come crashing down.
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