Global Temperatures Plunge. Icy Silence from Climate Alarmists

winter_harshGlobal land temperatures have plummeted by one degree Celsius since the middle of this year – the biggest and steepest fall on record.

But the news has been greeted with an eerie silence by the world’s alarmist community. You’d almost imagine that when temperatures shoot up it’s catastrophic climate change which requires dramatic headlines across the mainstream media and demands for urgent action. But that when they fall even more precipitously it’s just a case of “nothing to see here”.

The cause of the fall is a La Nina event following in the wake of an unusual strong El Nino.

As David Rose reports:

Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal.

This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.

The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer.

This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.

But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.

Yes indeed. I recommend this sober assessment of the situation written earlier this month by Dr. David Whitehouse, science editor of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

With 2016 being predicted as a record warm year it is interesting to speculate on what the El Nino’s contribution will be, which is, in a word, everything. It can be argued that without the El Nino (and the so-called “Pacific Blob”) 2014-2016 would not have been record warm years.

He calls the cooling a “reality check”, noting:

Many think that 2017 will be cooler than previous years. Myles Allen of Oxford University says that by the time of the next big United Nations climate conference global temperatures are likely to be no warmer than the Paris COP in 2015. This would be a strange thing to happen if, as some climate scientists have claimed, recent years would have been a record even without the El Nino.

The last three years may eventually come to be seen as the final death rattle of the global warming scare. Thanks what’s now recognised as an unusually strong El Nino, global temperatures were driven to sufficiently high levels to revive the alarmist narrative – after an unhelpful pause period of nearly 20 years – that the world had got hotter than ever before.

It resulted in a slew of “Hottest Year Evah” stories from the usual suspects. As I patiently explained at the time – here, here, and here – this wasn’t science but propaganda. If you’re a reader of Breitbart or one of the sceptical websites this will hardly have come as news to you. But, of course, across much of the mainstream media – and, of course, on all the left-leaning websites – these “Hottest Year Evah” stories were relayed as fact. And, inevitably, were often cited by a host of experts on Twitter as proof that evil deniers are, like, anti-science and totally evil and really should be thrown in prison for sacrificing the future of the world’s children by promoting Big-Oil-funded denialism.

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    MCPR

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    We will have the alarmist media explaining that cooling is just “weather” in 3, 2, 1…

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    Sentient

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    There are a great many things at play here. From shortest to longest, here are a few things worth considering. First, we are quickly coming off the effects of the recent super El-Nino and into the effects of the next La-Nina. Next, the “Blob”, or the warm pool of water resident for quite some time now off the Pacific Northwest, has rapidly been replaced with a cool “Blob”. Next up is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which went positive in 1979, and right on schedule, switched to its negative mode in 2009. The AMDO seems to have switched in the last few years to its negative mode. Both portend a ~30 year cooling cycle. Solar Cycle 24 seems to have begun about 2009 as well (this is the ~11 year sunspot and magnetic pole swap cycle). SC24 turned out to be a 2-peak cycle, and we are now a year or so past the second peak. SC24 has been extraordinarily weak. The sunspot count is way down (suggests cooling). The F10.7, or 10.7 cm band radio flux, has been hovering frequently below 67 since 2008. 67 is considered to the be the theoretical low limit for the F10.7 flux, so bad ju-ju. 100 is considered by some to be the breakover point between earth heating and cooling based on the F10.7 solar radio flux. Then there is the ominous issue as to what all of this might mean at the now 11,719 year old Holocene interglacial. Seven of the last 8 interglacials have each lasted about half of a precession cycle, which varies between 19,000 and the 23,000 year point we are at right now. That makes 11,500 half and 11,719 about half. Then there is the obliquity problem. All interglacials tend to enter glacial inception about 5,000 years after the peak in obliquity, which we passed ~10,000 years ago.

    All of this, taken together, suggests the possibility of a significant, normal, natural climate decay. Perhaps even a cataclysmic one. The orbital dynamics (precession and obliquity) quoted here even suggest the possibility of glacial inception. The historical implications of which make the debate over anthropogenic global warming seem “like two fleas arguing over who owns the dog they are riding on (Crocodile Dundee, 1986)”.

    Interestingly enough, Ruddiman (2003) provided what may turn out to be the light at the end of the tunnel. Coining what is now the 3rd scholarly debate on climate change, Ruddiman’s Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis, as best stated by Muller and Pross (2007):

    “The possible explanation as to why we are still in an interglacial relates to the early anthropogenic hypothesis of Ruddiman (2003, 2005). According to that hypothesis, the anomalous increase of CO2 and CH4 concentrations in the atmosphere as observed in mid- to late Holocene ice-cores results from anthropogenic deforestation and rice irrigation, which started in the early Neolithic at 8000 and 5000 yr BP, respectively. Ruddiman proposes that these early human greenhouse gas emissions prevented the inception of an overdue glacial that otherwise would have already started.”

    conclude Muller and Pross (2007)
    https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ulrich_Mueller7/publication/222561971_Lesson_from_the_past_present_insolation_minimum_holds_potential_for_glacial_inception/links/0c96051e593f3a593d000000.pdf

    A well-known Chinese insult is “may you live in interesting times.” And, as you now know, we do indeed live in one of the most interesting of climate times. Climate has deteriorated frequently during the present interglacial, the most recent occurrence was the Little Ice Age (LIA). If you look at the decay of climate since the Holocene Climate Optimum, ~6-7,000 years ago, the last few decades look rather pitiful in terms of both peak warmth and rate of rise.

    So the question then becomes what sort of climate should we expect, here at the now 11,719 year old Holocene? From the study of the ends of the most recent interglacials, the geologic slang for glacial inception is the “climatic madhouse.”

    I could take you into the exquisite detail of what this really means, but this comment is long enough already. Let me know if you want to know more.

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      Simon Ruszczak

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      “The possible explanation as to why we are still in an interglacial”, we got lucky ! . .
      Greenhouse gases don’t exist, gases can’t trap heat like a greenhouse. .
      Your speculation is correct though, we’re at the end of the Holocene.

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    Simon Ruszczak

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    So, the “Globull warming” scam would have ended 2 years sooner, if it wasn’t for an El Nino delaying the mini ice age.

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