In the first months of 2016, the North Atlantic has been significantly colder that the comparable El Niño year of 1998, and solar activity is the weakest in 200 years.
As a result could the winter of 2016/17 be one of the worst in a hundred years, like 1962/63 in Europe.
The following chart shows a clear cooling of the sea surface temperatures (SSTA) in the North Atlantic (35°N – 67°N, 55°W-0°) for the months of January to July 2016, compared to 1998.
The above chart shows the difference of the deviation from the mean sea surface temperature (SSTA) for the first seven months in both El Niño years 2016 and 1998. 2016 is far colder than 1998. Source: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd.pl.
Currently the North Atlantic is also much colder than normal when compared to the WMO recommended 1981-2010 climate mean:
What effects does the sub-cooled North Atlantic have, for example, on a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and on Europe’s upcoming autumn and winter?