Cracks in the Empire’s Armor Appear

Yesterday brought widespread news coverage of a new “study” published in Nature Geoscience which concludes that global warming has not been progressing as fast as expected and that climate models might be a “little bit” wrong.

(That the “little bit” is a factor of 2 or 3 is a fine point upon which we won’t quibble here.)

I’m still trying to process my feelings about how the two authors, Myles Allen and Michael Grubb, might have been allowed to wander so far off the Empire’s (UN IPCC’s) reservation.

My initial reaction to the news was captured by my wife:

I’ve been thinking about what led to this turn of events. I’ve decided it was not some random realization by rogue elements of the Empire. It was not a tactical anomaly, but instead a strategic trial balloon of sorts.

Had John Christy or I tried to publish such a paper, Storm Troopers led by Darth Trenberth would have been quickly dispatched to put down the rebellion.

The realization by the authors that the climate models have produced too much warming since about 2000 has been out there for at least 5 years. It has been no secret, and Christy and I have been lambasted as “deniers” for repeatedly pointing it out.

The timing of the authors’ realization of the same seems not very believable. Quoting from the Independent article,

According to The Times, another of the paper’s authors, Michael Grubb, a professor of international energy and climate change at University College London, admitted his earlier forecasting models had overplayed how temperatures would rise. At the Paris climate summit in 2015, Professor Grubb said: “All the evidence from the past 15 years leads me to conclude that actually delivering 1.5°C is simply incompatible with democracy.” But speaking to The Times he said: “When the facts change, I change my mind, as [John Maynard] Keynes said.”

Now, I must ask, what did Grubb know, and when did he know it? What exactly has changed in the model forecasts since the Paris summit in December 2015?

Exactly nothing.

Allen and Grubb knew the models had a problem well before that.

I suspect there have been years of discussions in e-cigarette vapor-filled back rooms where Empire leaders have been discussing how the increasing disparity between models and observations should be handled. The resulting new paper is part of a grand scheme that Population Bomb author Paul Ehrlich perfected decades ago. I believe the new narrative taking shape is this: “yes, we were wrong, but only in the timing of the coming global warming disaster. It is still going to happen… but now we have time to fix it, before it really, really is too late.”

I wonder if Allen and Grubb will also be called “deniers” for pointing out that the emperor’s models have no clothes?

Only time will tell. For now, all I can say is, welcome to the dark side.

Since it is card-carrying members of the climate establishment saying the models are wrong, though, they will probably be hailed as visionaries.

Read more at Dr. Roy Spencer’s blog

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Comments (5)

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    Greg White

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    “All the evidence from the past 15 years leads me to conclude that actually delivering 1.5°C is simply incompatible with democracy.” This is the reason it was published, if it’s impossible to solve the problem, why bother to try, but if it is possible, then they can continue all the scams.

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    • Avatar

      Adam Garlepp

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      . At the Paris climate summit in 2015, Professor Grubb said: “All the evidence from the past 15 years leads me to conclude that actually delivering 1.5°C is simply incompatible with democracy.”

      The last three words are important ……….. because the whole agenda her, is, and always was, to bring down democracy.

      Reply

  • Avatar

    Spurwing Plover

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    Come on Bill Nye i double dog dare you to arrest me fr thought crimes you two bit phonie you and the rest of the Global Warming crowd(Al Bore,Leonardo DiCaprio,David Suzuki,Luarie David all those Glpbal Warming liberal cartoonists scribbling you crappy cartoons for lie filled daily news rags you talking heads liberal celeberties and world leaders who treat your people worst then trash and the useful idiots from various enviromentalists groups and the useful idiots marching through NYC in their Useful Iidots Climate March as well as you troublemakers from Greenpeace puttering around the world in your fossil fueled ships(Arctic Sunrise,Rainbow Warrior II)and you idiots from NRDC and the EDF making false and misleading commercials using kids over this Global Warming hoax and the rest of the enviromentalists wackos crowd of nit-wits and seeing some liberal on a dumb bicycle reminds me of from THE WIZARD of OZ and ElviraGulch(Margret Hamilton)on her bike

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  • Avatar

    Sonnyhill

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    Civilization adapts . Warmists can turn off the alarm bells, we’ve been handed the luxury of more time. Don’t throw away appliances until they wear out. Don’t shut down fossil fuelled generators until they’re no longer serviceable. Don’t buy green energy until it’s price competitive.
    I suspect that China and India figured this announcement was over due, so full speed ahead was their Paris pledge.

    Reply

  • Avatar

    Amber

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    They have known for at least 5 years the models ran very hot VS reality. So why now to publically confirm what is already known .
    Perhaps it’s just safer now and when the EPA task force to evaluate all data is convened they are going to publically state
    the same conclusion . Best to get out ahead of those revelations to
    control the narrative and deflate the EPA panel findings .
    Typical punt the scary climate story consequences far enough into the future so the bull shitters are never held to account for their role in fleecing tax payers .
    Besides why would Americans send $ billions to countries who provide cover (Pakistan ) for people who hate the west and the USA in particular .
    President Trump was absolutely right to slam the door in the face of globalists and their rent seeking friends .

    Reply

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