China’s Coal Trends: Myth & Reality

China’s march towards coal continued in 2014 as shown by data from the latest report from China’s National Energy Administration. Despite additions of substantial wind, solar, and nuclear capacity, when properly adjusted for capacity factor (the amount of annual energy produced per unit of capacity) to reflect production capability, the amount of new coal energy added to the China grid last year exceeded new solar energy by 17 times, new wind energy by more than 4 times, and even new hydro by more than 3 times. And, despite having more than 30 new nuclear reactors under construction, China’s new nuclear capability was still a fraction of new coal energy. — Armond Cohen, Clean Air Task Force, 18 February 2015

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The basic coal math in Cohen’s piece is a sobering reminder that the fossil age is not ending any time soon. Unfortunately, I don’t share Cohen’s optimism about prospects for the deployment of CCS at a scale the climate would notice, mainly because there’s no incentive for China to pay the additional cost, no sign (unless you can identify one?) that developed countries will be willing to cover the difference and little evidence that the world is serious about a much more ambitious push on large-scale demonstration of integrated systems for capturing and storing CO2. –Andrew Revkin, International New York Times, 18 February 2015

One of the biggest miscalculations that the global warming alarmists have made is claiming that global CO2 emissions must reach their peak by 2020 and then begin falling rapidly. If they don’t, there will be no chance of reaching the 2°C maximum warming target. Planetary catastrophe will ensue, the alarmists claim. British energy behemoth BP has just released its BP Energy Outlook 2035, and it states in no uncertain terms that there is no chance of CO2 emissions beginning their decline by 2035, let alone 2020.  The BP Report shows strong growth in renewable energy, but it will be only about 8% of global energy supply by 2035. That’s light year’s away from the UN’s 50% target. Obviously, no one except a few token countries are taking renewable energies seriously. –Pierre Goselin, No Tricks Zone, 18 February 2015

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We project that by 2035 China becomes the world’s largest energy importer, overtaking Europe, as import dependence rises from 15% to 23%. China’s energy production rises by 47% while consumption grows by 60%. China’s fossil fuel output continues to rise with increases in natural gas (+200%) and coal (+19%) more than offsetting declines in oil (-3%). China’s CO2 emissions increase by 37% and by 2035 will account for 30% of world total with per capita emissions surpassing the OECD by the end of the Outlook. —BP Energy Outlook 2035

India’s energy production rises by 117% to 2035 while consumption grows by 128%. India’s energy mix evolves very slowly over the next 22 years with fossil fuels accounting for 87% of demand in 2035, compared to a global average of 81%. This is down from 92% today. Oil remains the dominant fuel (36%) followed by gas (30%) and coal (21%). CO2 emissions from energy consumption increase by 115%. —BP Energy Outlook 2035

American taxpayers spent an average of $39 billion a year over the past 5 years financing grants, subsidizing tax credits, guaranteeing loans, bailing out failed solar energy boondoggles and otherwise underwriting every idea under the sun to make solar energy cheaper and more popular. But none of it has worked. —Taxpayers Protection Alliance (TPA), 12 February 2015

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    Amber

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    ALL this yet the EPA continues to pursue policies to ensure jobs and emissions increase …just not in the USA .

    How many industries have moved because they realize they are not welcome in their own countries although the things they sell are ?

    In war terms isn’t undermining your own side akin to treason ?

    In the EPA world the economy is someone else’s problem .

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    Al Shelton

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    The first thing that these Alarmists and everyone else, for that matter, must realize is that there still is no empirical proof, whatsoever, that CO2 emissions are causing global warming.
    It is a total lie, perpetrated and perpetuated by the UN IPCC.
    Where is the proof?
    The GHG Theory is false. skeptics of the AGW, like me, have been demanding PROOF, not computer models or theory, for years.
    Where is the proof? The Paleoclimatic record shows CO2 lagging global temperatures. The last 18+ years have no warming despite substantial increased levels of CO2.
    WHY? Simply because CO2 does NOT cause global warming.
    If you go to court on a murder charge, the Crown has to prove that you are a murderer. Like wise, if the UN IPCC charges “mankind’ with causing global warming by burning fossil fuels, they have to prove it.
    Where is the proof???

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